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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1879 1878 1877 Yrs Career Needed
26 Joe Gerhardt CIN 2B 24 0.0% 0.8 1 0 1 9.4 4 496
27 Bill Hague PRO 3B 27 0.0% 0.2 0 0 1 7.5 2 498
28 Bill Harbridge CHC CF 24 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 9.4 0 500
29 Bill Holbert SYR/TRO C 24 0.0% 0.0 0 0 9.4 0 500
30 King Kelly CIN 3B 21 0.0% 1.5 2 0 11.1 2 498
31 Terry Larkin CHC SP 23 0.0% 0.2 0 0 1 9.9 1 499
32 Jim McCormick CLE SP 22 0.0% 0.0 0 0 10.4 0 500
33 Bobby Mitchell CLE SP 23 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 10.0 0 500
34 John Morrill BSN 3B 24 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 9.4 0 500
35 Candy Nelson TRO SS 30 0.0% 0.0 0 0 5.8 0 500
36 John Peters CHC SS 29 0.0% 0.8 1 0 0 6.5 3 497
37 Joe Quest CHC 2B 26 0.0% 0.0 0 0 8.0 0 500
38 Orator Shafer CHC RF 27 0.0% 0.5 0 0 3 7.4 4 496
39 Pop Snyder BSN C 24 0.0% 1.5 2 0 2 9.2 7 493
40 Fred Warner CLE 3B 24 0.0% 0.0 0 0 9.3 0 500
41 Harry Wheeler CIN RF 21 0.0% 0.0 0 0 11.2 0 500
42 Deacon White CIN C 31 0.0% 0.8 1 0 2 5.1 9 491
43 Will White CIN SP 24 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 9.2 0 500
44 George Wright PRO SS 32 0.0% 0.8 1 0 0 4.5 11 489
45 George Adams SYR CF 24 0.0% 0.0 0 9.3 0 500
46 Jack Allen SYR/CLE 3B 23 0.0% 0.0 0 9.8 0 500
47 Ross Barnes CIN SS 29 0.0% 0.8 1 0 6.5 6 494
48 George Bradley TRO SP 26 0.0% 0.0 0 0 7.8 0 500
49 Dan Brouthers TRO 1B 21 0.0% 3.0 4 11.3 4 496
50 Mike Burke CIN SS 25 0.0% 0.0 0 8.7 0 500
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