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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns
Bill James' Favorite Toy
Rk | Player | Team | Pos | Age | Prob | EstLvl | 1879 | 1878 | 1877 | Yrs | Career | Needed |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
26 | Mike Mansell | SYR | LF | 21 | 0.0% | 0.8 | 1 | 11.1 | 1 | 499 | ||
27 | Bobby Mathews | PRO | SP | 27 | 0.0% | 0.8 | 1 | 0 | 7.4 | 1 | 499 | |
28 | Harry McCormick | SYR | SP | 23 | 0.0% | 0.8 | 1 | 9.8 | 1 | 499 | ||
29 | John Peters | CHC | SS | 29 | 0.0% | 0.8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 | 3 | 497 |
30 | John Richmond | SYR | SS | 24 | 0.0% | 0.8 | 1 | 9.4 | 1 | 499 | ||
31 | Oscar Walker | BUF | 1B | 25 | 0.0% | 0.8 | 1 | 8.8 | 1 | 499 | ||
32 | George Wright | PRO | SS | 32 | 0.0% | 0.8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.5 | 11 | 489 |
33 | Cal McVey | CIN | 1B | 29 | 0.0% | 0.7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6.1 | 11 | 489 |
34 | Orator Shafer | CHC | RF | 27 | 0.0% | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7.4 | 4 | 496 |
35 | Frank Hankinson | CHC | SP | 23 | 0.0% | 0.3 | 0 | 1 | 10.1 | 1 | 499 | |
36 | Jack Remsen | CHC | CF | 28 | 0.0% | 0.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.9 | 5 | 495 |
37 | Ezra Sutton | BSN | SS | 29 | 0.0% | 0.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.1 | 6 | 494 |
38 | Tom Carey | CLE | SS | 32 | 0.0% | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4.4 | 5 | 495 |
39 | Bill Crowley | BUF | RF | 22 | 0.0% | 0.2 | 0 | 1 | 10.7 | 1 | 499 | |
40 | Bill Hague | PRO | 3B | 27 | 0.0% | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7.5 | 2 | 498 |
41 | Terry Larkin | CHC | SP | 23 | 0.0% | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9.9 | 1 | 499 |
42 | George Adams | SYR | CF | 24 | 0.0% | 0.0 | 0 | 9.3 | 0 | 500 | ||
43 | Jack Allen | SYR/CLE | 3B | 23 | 0.0% | 0.0 | 0 | 9.8 | 0 | 500 | ||
44 | Doug Allison | PRO | C | 32 | 0.0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.2 | 2 | 498 |
45 | Cap Anson | CHC | 1B | 27 | 0.0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.7 | 2 | 498 |
46 | Tommy Bond | BSN | SP | 23 | 0.0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.1 | 0 | 500 |
47 | George Bradley | TRO | SP | 26 | 0.0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 7.8 | 0 | 500 | |
48 | Jack Burdock | BSN | 2B | 27 | 0.0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.7 | 3 | 497 |
49 | Mike Burke | CIN | SS | 25 | 0.0% | 0.0 | 0 | 8.7 | 0 | 500 | ||
50 | Hick Carpenter | SYR | 3B | 23 | 0.0% | 0.0 | 0 | 9.7 | 0 | 500 |