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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1879 1878 1877 Yrs Career Needed
26 Mike Mansell SYR LF 21 0.0% 0.8 1 11.1 1 499
27 Bobby Mathews PRO SP 27 0.0% 0.8 1 0 7.4 1 499
28 Harry McCormick SYR SP 23 0.0% 0.8 1 9.8 1 499
29 John Peters CHC SS 29 0.0% 0.8 1 0 0 6.5 3 497
30 John Richmond SYR SS 24 0.0% 0.8 1 9.4 1 499
31 Oscar Walker BUF 1B 25 0.0% 0.8 1 8.8 1 499
32 George Wright PRO SS 32 0.0% 0.8 1 0 0 4.5 11 489
33 Cal McVey CIN 1B 29 0.0% 0.7 0 2 0 6.1 11 489
34 Orator Shafer CHC RF 27 0.0% 0.5 0 0 3 7.4 4 496
35 Frank Hankinson CHC SP 23 0.0% 0.3 0 1 10.1 1 499
36 Jack Remsen CHC CF 28 0.0% 0.3 0 1 0 6.9 5 495
37 Ezra Sutton BSN SS 29 0.0% 0.3 0 1 0 6.1 6 494
38 Tom Carey CLE SS 32 0.0% 0.2 0 0 1 4.4 5 495
39 Bill Crowley BUF RF 22 0.0% 0.2 0 1 10.7 1 499
40 Bill Hague PRO 3B 27 0.0% 0.2 0 0 1 7.5 2 498
41 Terry Larkin CHC SP 23 0.0% 0.2 0 0 1 9.9 1 499
42 George Adams SYR CF 24 0.0% 0.0 0 9.3 0 500
43 Jack Allen SYR/CLE 3B 23 0.0% 0.0 0 9.8 0 500
44 Doug Allison PRO C 32 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 4.2 2 498
45 Cap Anson CHC 1B 27 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 7.7 2 498
46 Tommy Bond BSN SP 23 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 10.1 0 500
47 George Bradley TRO SP 26 0.0% 0.0 0 0 7.8 0 500
48 Jack Burdock BSN 2B 27 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 7.7 3 497
49 Mike Burke CIN SS 25 0.0% 0.0 0 8.7 0 500
50 Hick Carpenter SYR 3B 23 0.0% 0.0 0 9.7 0 500
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