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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1879 1878 1877 Yrs Career Needed
26 Orator Shafer CHC RF 27 0.0% 0.5 0 0 3 7.4 4 496
27 Bobby Mathews PRO SP 27 0.0% 0.8 1 0 7.4 1 499
28 Ed Caskin TRO SS 27 0.0% 0.0 0 7.5 0 500
29 Bill Hague PRO 3B 27 0.0% 0.2 0 0 1 7.5 2 498
30 Jack Burdock BSN 2B 27 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 7.7 3 497
31 Cap Anson CHC 1B 27 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 7.7 2 498
32 Charley Jones BSN LF 27 0.0% 6.8 9 3 2 7.7 18 482
33 George Bradley TRO SP 26 0.0% 0.0 0 0 7.8 0 500
34 Thorny Hawkes TRO 2B 26 0.0% 0.0 0 8.0 0 500
35 Joe Quest CHC 2B 26 0.0% 0.0 0 0 8.0 0 500
36 Herm Doscher TRO/CHC 3B 26 0.0% 0.0 0 8.1 0 500
37 Sonny Hoffman CLE C 26 0.0% 0.0 0 8.1 0 500
38 Doc Kennedy CLE C 25 0.0% 0.8 1 8.5 1 499
39 Mike Dorgan SYR 1B 25 0.0% 0.8 1 0 8.6 1 499
40 Bill Hawes BSN RF 25 0.0% 0.0 0 8.6 0 500
41 Steve Libby BUF 1B 25 0.0% 0.0 0 8.7 0 500
42 Mike Burke CIN SS 25 0.0% 0.0 0 8.7 0 500
43 Ed Cogswell BSN 1B 25 0.0% 0.8 1 8.8 1 499
44 Blondie Purcell SYR/CIN SP 25 0.0% 0.0 0 8.8 0 500
45 Oscar Walker BUF 1B 25 0.0% 0.8 1 8.8 1 499
46 George Gore CHC CF 25 0.0% 0.0 0 8.9 0 500
47 Pop Snyder BSN C 24 0.0% 1.5 2 0 2 9.2 7 493
48 Will White CIN SP 24 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 9.2 0 500
49 George Adams SYR CF 24 0.0% 0.0 0 9.3 0 500
50 John Cassidy TRO RF 24 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 9.3 1 499
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