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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1879 1878 1877 Yrs Career Needed
1 Charley Jones BSN LF 27 0.0% 6.8 9 3 2 7.7 18 482
2 John O'Rourke BSN CF 29 0.0% 4.5 6 6.1 6 494
3 Dan Brouthers TRO 1B 21 0.0% 3.0 4 11.3 4 496
4 Charlie Eden CLE RF 24 0.0% 2.3 3 0 9.3 3 497
5 Lew Brown PRO/CHC C 21 0.0% 1.5 2 1 1 11.2 6 494
6 Buttercup Dickerson CIN LF 20 0.0% 1.5 2 0 11.6 2 498
7 Paul Hines PRO CF 24 0.0% 2.3 2 4 0 9.4 9 491
8 Sadie Houck BSN RF 23 0.0% 1.5 2 10.0 2 498
9 King Kelly CIN 3B 21 0.0% 1.5 2 0 11.1 2 498
10 Pop Snyder BSN C 24 0.0% 1.5 2 0 2 9.2 7 493
11 Joe Start PRO 1B 36 0.0% 1.5 2 1 1 2.0 12 488
12 Monte Ward PRO SP 19 0.0% 1.5 2 1 12.4 3 497
13 Ross Barnes CIN SS 29 0.0% 0.8 1 0 6.5 6 494
14 John Clapp BUF C 27 0.0% 0.8 1 0 0 7.2 6 494
15 Ed Cogswell BSN 1B 25 0.0% 0.8 1 8.8 1 499
16 Mike Dorgan SYR 1B 25 0.0% 0.8 1 0 8.6 1 499
17 Jack Farrell SYR/PRO 2B 21 0.0% 0.8 1 10.8 1 499
18 Silver Flint CHC C 23 0.0% 0.8 1 0 9.7 1 499
19 Joe Gerhardt CIN 2B 24 0.0% 0.8 1 0 1 9.4 4 496
20 Pete Hotaling CIN CF 22 0.0% 0.8 1 10.5 1 499
21 Doc Kennedy CLE C 25 0.0% 0.8 1 8.5 1 499
22 Mike Mansell SYR LF 21 0.0% 0.8 1 11.1 1 499
23 Bobby Mathews PRO SP 27 0.0% 0.8 1 0 7.4 1 499
24 Harry McCormick SYR SP 23 0.0% 0.8 1 9.8 1 499
25 Jim O'Rourke PRO RF 28 0.0% 0.8 1 1 0 6.7 16 484
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