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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1879 1878 1877 Yrs Career Needed
1 George Adams SYR CF 24 0.0% 0.0 0 9.3 0 500
2 Jack Allen SYR/CLE 3B 23 0.0% 0.0 0 9.8 0 500
3 Tommy Bond BSN SP 23 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 10.1 0 500
4 George Bradley TRO SP 26 0.0% 0.0 0 0 7.8 0 500
5 Mike Burke CIN SS 25 0.0% 0.0 0 8.7 0 500
6 Hick Carpenter SYR 3B 23 0.0% 0.0 0 9.7 0 500
7 Ed Caskin TRO SS 27 0.0% 0.0 0 7.5 0 500
8 Aaron Clapp TRO 1B 23 0.0% 0.0 0 10.2 0 500
9 George Creamer SYR 2B 24 0.0% 0.0 0 0 9.3 0 500
10 Abner Dalrymple CHC LF 21 0.0% 0.0 0 0 10.9 0 500
11 Frank Decker SYR C 22 0.0% 0.0 0 10.6 0 500
12 Tom Dolan CHC C 24 0.0% 0.0 0 9.3 0 500
13 Herm Doscher TRO/CHC 3B 26 0.0% 0.0 0 8.1 0 500
14 Dave Eggler BUF CF 30 0.0% 0.0 0 0 5.9 0 500
15 Jake Evans TRO RF 22 0.0% 0.0 0 10.3 0 500
16 Bob Ferguson TRO 3B 34 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 3.4 0 500
17 Curry Foley BSN SP 23 0.0% 0.0 0 9.9 0 500
18 Will Foley CIN RF 23 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 9.8 0 500
19 Davy Force BUF SS 29 0.0% 0.0 0 0 6.0 0 500
20 Pud Galvin BUF SP 22 0.0% 0.0 0 10.5 0 500
21 Gid Gardner TRO SP 20 0.0% 0.0 0 11.9 0 500
22 Barney Gilligan CLE C 23 0.0% 0.0 0 9.9 0 500
23 Jack Glasscock CLE 2B 21 0.0% 0.0 0 10.8 0 500
24 Fred Goldsmith TRO SP 23 0.0% 0.0 0 10.1 0 500
25 George Gore CHC CF 25 0.0% 0.0 0 8.9 0 500
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