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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1879 1878 1877 Yrs Career Needed
1 Charley Jones BSN LF 27 0.0% 6.8 9 3 2 7.7 18 482
2 Jim O'Rourke PRO RF 28 0.0% 0.8 1 1 0 6.7 16 484
3 Joe Start PRO 1B 36 0.0% 1.5 2 1 1 2.0 12 488
4 Cal McVey CIN 1B 29 0.0% 0.7 0 2 0 6.1 11 489
5 George Wright PRO SS 32 0.0% 0.8 1 0 0 4.5 11 489
6 Paul Hines PRO CF 24 0.0% 2.3 2 4 0 9.4 9 491
7 Deacon White CIN C 31 0.0% 0.8 1 0 2 5.1 9 491
8 Tom York PRO LF 28 0.0% 1.0 1 1 1 6.6 9 491
9 Pop Snyder BSN C 24 0.0% 1.5 2 0 2 9.2 7 493
10 Ross Barnes CIN SS 29 0.0% 0.8 1 0 6.5 6 494
11 Lew Brown PRO/CHC C 21 0.0% 1.5 2 1 1 11.2 6 494
12 John Clapp BUF C 27 0.0% 0.8 1 0 0 7.2 6 494
13 John O'Rourke BSN CF 29 0.0% 4.5 6 6.1 6 494
14 Ezra Sutton BSN SS 29 0.0% 0.3 0 1 0 6.1 6 494
15 Tom Carey CLE SS 32 0.0% 0.2 0 0 1 4.4 5 495
16 Jack Remsen CHC CF 28 0.0% 0.3 0 1 0 6.9 5 495
17 Dan Brouthers TRO 1B 21 0.0% 3.0 4 11.3 4 496
18 Joe Gerhardt CIN 2B 24 0.0% 0.8 1 0 1 9.4 4 496
19 Orator Shafer CHC RF 27 0.0% 0.5 0 0 3 7.4 4 496
20 Jack Burdock BSN 2B 27 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 7.7 3 497
21 Charlie Eden CLE RF 24 0.0% 2.3 3 0 9.3 3 497
22 Chick Fulmer BUF 2B 28 0.0% 0.0 0 7.0 3 497
23 John Peters CHC SS 29 0.0% 0.8 1 0 0 6.5 3 497
24 Monte Ward PRO SP 19 0.0% 1.5 2 1 12.4 3 497
25 Doug Allison PRO C 32 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 4.2 2 498
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