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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1878 1877 1876 Yrs Career Needed
1 Lip Pike CIN/PRO CF 33 0.0% 1.5 0 4 1 4.1 20 480
2 Jim O'Rourke BSN CF 27 0.0% 0.8 1 0 2 7.3 15 485
3 Cal McVey CIN 3B 28 0.0% 1.5 2 0 1 6.7 11 489
4 Joe Start CHC 1B 35 0.0% 0.8 1 1 0 2.6 10 490
5 George Wright BSN SS 31 0.0% 0.2 0 0 1 5.1 10 490
6 Charley Jones CIN LF 26 0.0% 2.8 3 2 4 8.3 9 491
7 Deacon White CIN C 30 0.0% 0.8 0 2 1 5.7 8 492
8 Tom York PRO LF 27 0.0% 1.0 1 1 1 7.2 8 492
9 Paul Hines PRO CF 23 0.0% 3.0 4 0 2 10.0 7 493
10 Ezra Sutton BSN 3B 28 0.0% 0.8 1 0 1 6.7 6 494
11 Tom Carey PRO SS 31 0.0% 0.3 0 1 0 5.0 5 495
12 John Clapp IND LF 26 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 7.8 5 495
13 Jimmy Hallinan CHC/IND LF 29 0.0% 0.3 0 0 2 6.5 5 495
14 Tim Murnane PRO 1B 27 0.0% 0.7 0 1 2 7.8 5 495
15 Jack Remsen CHC CF 27 0.0% 0.8 1 0 1 7.5 5 495
16 Pop Snyder BSN C 23 0.0% 0.8 0 2 1 9.8 5 495
17 Lew Brown PRO C 20 0.0% 1.2 1 1 2 11.8 4 496
18 Dick Higham PRO RF 26 0.0% 0.8 1 0 7.8 4 496
19 Harry Schafer BSN RF 31 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 4.9 4 496
20 Orator Shafer IND RF 26 0.0% 1.0 0 3 8.0 4 496
21 Jack Burdock BSN 2B 26 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 8.3 3 497
22 Cherokee Fisher PRO SP 33 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 3.8 3 497
23 Joe Gerhardt CIN 2B 23 0.0% 0.7 0 1 2 10.0 3 497
24 Andy Leonard BSN LF 32 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 4.8 3 497
25 Jack Manning BSN RF 24 0.0% 0.3 0 0 2 9.3 3 497
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