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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1871 1870 1869 Yrs Career Needed
1 Levi Meyerle PHA 3B 22 0.0% 3.0 4 10.8 4 496
2 Lip Pike TRO RF 26 0.0% 3.0 4 8.3 4 496
3 Fred Treacey CHI LF 24 0.0% 3.0 4 9.3 4 496
4 John Bass CLE SS 23 0.0% 2.3 3 9.9 3 497
5 Ned Cuthbert PHA LF 26 0.0% 2.3 3 8.4 3 497
6 Ezra Sutton CLE 3B 21 0.0% 2.3 3 10.9 3 497
7 Doug Allison OLY C 24 0.0% 1.5 2 9.0 2 498
8 Charlie Gould BOS 1B 23 0.0% 1.5 2 9.7 2 498
9 George Hall OLY CF 22 0.0% 1.5 2 10.6 2 498
10 Charlie Hodes CHI C 23 0.0% 1.5 2 9.9 2 498
11 Marshall King CHI 3B 21 0.0% 1.5 2 11.1 2 498
12 Gat Stires ROK RF 21 0.0% 1.5 2 11.0 2 498
13 Tom York TRO CF 20 0.0% 1.5 2 11.4 2 498
14 George Bechtel PHA RF 22 0.0% 0.8 1 10.3 1 499
15 Henry Burroughs OLY LF 26 0.0% 0.8 1 8.2 1 499
16 Cherokee Fisher ROK SP 26 0.0% 0.8 1 8.0 1 499
17 Jim Foran FTW 1B 23 0.0% 0.8 1 9.9 1 499
18 Fergy Malone PHA C 26 0.0% 0.8 1 7.9 1 499
19 Everett Mills OLY 1B 26 0.0% 0.8 1 8.1 1 499
20 Ed Pinkham CHI 3B 24 0.0% 0.8 1 9.1 1 499
21 Frank Sellman FTW SS 20 0.0% 0.8 1 11.7 1 499
22 Al Spalding BOS SP 20 0.0% 0.8 1 11.5 1 499
23 Joe Start NYM 1B 28 0.0% 0.8 1 6.8 1 499
24 Deacon White CLE C 23 0.0% 0.8 1 9.9 1 499
25 Jimmy Wood CHI 2B 27 0.0% 0.8 1 7.5 1 499
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