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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2019 2018 2017 Yrs Career Needed
51 Mike Minor TEX SP 31 0.0% 12.0 14 12 6 5.1 70 230
52 Zach Duke CIN RP 36 0.0% 3.3 3 5 1 2.3 69 231
53 Clayton Richard TOR SP 35 0.0% 4.2 1 7 8 2.5 69 231
54 Mike Fiers OAK SP 34 0.0% 12.3 14 12 8 3.6 68 232
55 Kyle Gibson MIN SP 31 0.0% 11.8 13 10 12 5.0 67 233
56 Jacob deGrom NYM SP 31 0.0% 11.3 11 10 15 5.4 66 234
57 Rich Hill LAD SP 39 0.0% 7.7 4 11 12 1.5 65 235
58 Yu Darvish CHC SP 32 0.0% 5.0 6 1 10 4.3 63 237
59 Wade Davis COL RP 33 0.0% 2.2 1 3 4 3.7 63 237
60 Kyle Hendricks CHC SP 29 0.0% 11.3 11 14 7 6.3 63 237
61 Josh Tomlin ATL RP 34 0.0% 3.3 2 2 10 3.2 63 237
62 Marco Estrada OAK SP 35 0.0% 4.0 0 7 10 2.4 62 238
63 Jake Odorizzi MIN SP 29 0.0% 11.5 15 7 10 6.4 62 238
64 Chris Archer PIT SP 30 0.0% 5.2 3 6 10 5.5 60 240
65 Danny Duffy KCR SP 30 0.0% 7.7 7 8 9 5.7 60 240
66 Brett Anderson OAK SP 31 0.0% 9.8 13 4 4 5.2 59 241
67 Wei-Yin Chen MIA RP 33 0.0% 2.3 0 6 2 3.6 59 241
68 Michael Wacha STL SP 28 0.0% 7.7 6 8 12 7.2 59 241
69 Carlos Martinez STL RP 27 0.0% 6.7 4 8 12 7.3 58 242
70 Collin McHugh HOU SP 32 0.0% 4.8 4 6 5 4.8 58 242
71 Andrew Cashner BAL/BOS SP 32 0.0% 8.7 11 4 11 4.3 57 243
72 Tommy Hunter PHI RP 32 0.0% 2.2 0 5 3 4.2 56 244
73 James Paxton NYY SP 30 0.0% 13.2 15 11 12 5.6 56 244
74 Andrew Miller STL RP 34 0.0% 3.8 5 2 4 3.5 54 246
75 Matt Moore DET SP 30 0.0% 2.0 0 3 6 6.0 54 246
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