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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2019 2018 2017 Yrs Career Needed
26 Lance Lynn TEX SP 32 0.0% 13.2 16 10 11 4.7 98 202
27 Jason Vargas NYM/PHI SP 36 0.0% 8.3 6 7 18 2.2 98 202
28 Ian Kennedy KCR RP 34 0.0% 3.3 3 3 5 3.3 97 203
29 Jordan Zimmermann DET SP 33 0.0% 4.2 1 7 8 4.1 95 205
30 Edinson Volquez TEX SP 35 0.0% 0.7 0 4 2.4 93 207
31 Charlie Morton TBR SP 35 0.0% 15.3 16 15 14 2.6 91 209
32 Clay Buchholz TOR SP 34 0.0% 3.3 2 7 0 3.1 90 210
33 Ivan Nova CHW SP 32 0.0% 10.3 11 9 11 4.5 89 211
34 Carlos Carrasco CLE SP 32 0.0% 11.7 6 17 18 4.6 85 215
35 Wade Miley HOU SP 32 0.0% 10.5 14 5 8 4.4 85 215
36 Trevor Cahill LAA SP 31 0.0% 5.0 4 7 4 5.2 84 216
37 Dallas Keuchel ATL SP 31 0.0% 10.3 8 12 14 5.1 84 216
38 Jose Quintana CHC SP 30 0.0% 12.7 13 13 11 5.7 83 217
39 Homer Bailey KCR/OAK SP 33 0.0% 9.8 13 1 6 4.1 80 220
40 Jeff Samardzija SFG SP 34 0.0% 8.3 11 1 9 3.3 80 220
41 Derek Holland SFG/CHC SP 32 0.0% 4.5 2 7 7 4.4 78 222
42 Jhoulys Chacin MIL/BOS SP 31 0.0% 8.7 3 15 13 5.1 77 223
43 Julio Teheran ATL SP 28 0.0% 9.8 10 9 11 6.9 77 223
44 Jeremy Hellickson WAS SP 32 0.0% 4.0 2 5 8 4.7 76 224
45 Masahiro Tanaka NYY SP 30 0.0% 11.7 11 12 13 5.6 75 225
46 Tanner Roark CIN/OAK SP 32 0.0% 10.2 10 9 13 4.4 74 226
47 Oliver Perez CLE RP 37 0.0% 1.5 2 1 0 1.5 72 228
48 Trevor Bauer CLE/CIN SP 28 0.0% 12.3 11 12 17 6.9 70 230
49 Patrick Corbin WAS SP 29 0.0% 13.0 14 11 14 6.0 70 230
50 Sonny Gray CIN SP 29 0.0% 10.8 11 11 10 6.2 70 230
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