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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2019 2018 2017 Yrs Career Needed
1 Clayton Kershaw LAD SP 31 4.7% 13.8 15 9 18 5.2 168 132
2 Rick Porcello BOS SP 30 3.8% 14.4 13 17 11 5.7 148 152
3 Gerrit Cole HOU SP 28 2.8% 16.4 18 15 12 6.7 92 208
4 Justin Verlander HOU SP 36 0.3% 17.7 19 16 15 2.2 223 77
5 CC Sabathia NYY SP 38 0.0% 8.0 5 9 14 1.5 251 49
6 Zack Greinke ARI/HOU SP 35 0.0% 16.7 17 15 17 2.6 204 96
7 Jon Lester CHC SP 35 0.0% 15.0 13 18 13 2.7 190 110
8 Felix Hernandez SEA SP 33 0.0% 4.3 1 8 6 4.1 169 131
9 Max Scherzer WAS SP 34 0.0% 14.1 10 18 16 3.0 169 131
10 Cole Hamels CHC SP 35 0.0% 8.5 7 9 11 2.7 163 137
11 Adam Wainwright STL SP 37 0.0% 9.8 13 2 12 1.5 161 139
12 David Price BOS SP 33 0.0% 10.1 7 16 6 3.7 150 150
13 Ervin Santana CHW SP 36 0.0% 2.7 0 0 16 2.1 149 151
14 Gio Gonzalez MIL SP 33 0.0% 7.0 2 10 15 3.7 129 171
15 Johnny Cueto SFG SP 33 0.0% 2.9 1 3 8 4.0 126 174
16 J. A. Happ NYY SP 36 0.0% 13.6 12 17 10 2.0 121 179
17 Madison Bumgarner SFG SP 29 0.0% 7.3 9 6 4 6.1 119 181
18 Francisco Liriano PIT RP 35 0.0% 4.8 4 5 6 2.6 111 189
19 Stephen Strasburg WAS SP 30 0.0% 14.7 17 10 15 5.4 111 189
20 Chris Sale BOS SP 30 0.0% 10.1 6 12 17 5.8 109 191
21 Edwin Jackson TOR/DET SP 35 0.0% 4.4 3 6 5 2.5 107 193
22 Anibal Sanchez WAS SP 35 0.0% 8.1 10 7 3 2.8 107 193
23 Jake Arrieta PHI SP 33 0.0% 9.9 8 10 14 4.0 106 194
24 Mike Leake SEA/ARI SP 31 0.0% 11.2 12 10 10 5.0 105 195
25 Corey Kluber CLE SP 33 0.0% 10.9 2 20 18 4.1 98 202
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