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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2019 2018 2017 Yrs Career Needed
1 Clayton Kershaw LAD SP 31 5.9% 14.0 16 9 18 5.2 169 131
2 Gerrit Cole HOU SP 28 5.4% 17.0 20 15 12 6.7 94 206
3 Rick Porcello BOS SP 30 4.7% 14.5 14 17 11 5.7 149 151
4 Justin Verlander HOU SP 36 3.4% 18.3 21 16 15 2.2 225 75
5 CC Sabathia NYY SP 38 0.0% 7.8 5 9 14 1.5 251 49
6 Zack Greinke ARI/HOU SP 35 0.0% 16.8 18 15 17 2.6 205 95
7 Jon Lester CHC SP 35 0.0% 14.7 13 18 13 2.7 190 110
8 Max Scherzer WAS SP 34 0.0% 14.2 11 18 16 3.0 170 130
9 Felix Hernandez SEA SP 33 0.0% 4.2 1 8 6 4.1 169 131
10 Cole Hamels CHC SP 35 0.0% 8.3 7 9 11 2.7 163 137
11 Adam Wainwright STL SP 37 0.0% 10.5 14 2 12 1.5 162 138
12 David Price BOS SP 33 0.0% 9.8 7 16 6 3.7 150 150
13 Ervin Santana CHW SP 36 0.0% 2.7 0 0 16 2.1 149 151
14 Gio Gonzalez MIL SP 33 0.0% 7.3 3 10 15 3.7 130 170
15 Johnny Cueto SFG SP 33 0.0% 2.8 1 3 8 4.0 126 174
16 J. A. Happ NYY SP 36 0.0% 13.3 12 17 10 2.0 121 179
17 Madison Bumgarner SFG SP 29 0.0% 7.2 9 6 4 6.1 119 181
18 Francisco Liriano PIT RP 35 0.0% 5.2 5 5 6 2.6 112 188
19 Stephen Strasburg WAS SP 30 0.0% 14.8 18 10 15 5.4 112 188
20 Chris Sale BOS SP 30 0.0% 9.8 6 12 17 5.8 109 191
21 Anibal Sanchez WAS SP 35 0.0% 8.3 11 7 3 2.8 108 192
22 Edwin Jackson TOR/DET SP 35 0.0% 4.3 3 6 5 2.5 107 193
23 Jake Arrieta PHI SP 33 0.0% 9.7 8 10 14 4.0 106 194
24 Mike Leake SEA/ARI SP 31 0.0% 11.0 12 10 10 5.0 105 195
25 Corey Kluber CLE SP 33 0.0% 10.7 2 20 18 4.1 98 202
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