Choose Metric:

Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2019 2018 2017 Yrs Career Needed
1 Albert Pujols* LAA 1B 39 100.0% 21.7 23 19 23 1.5 656 0
2 Mike Trout LAA CF 27 85.2% 41.0 45 39 33 7.3 285 215
3 Nolan Arenado COL 3B 28 51.9% 39.3 41 38 37 7.1 227 273
4 Miguel Cabrera DET DH 36 45.8% 9.7 12 3 16 2.3 477 23
5 Bryce Harper PHI RF 26 45.6% 33.7 35 34 29 8.0 219 281
6 Cody Bellinger LAD RF 23 44.8% 38.3 47 25 39 9.6 111 389
7 Manny Machado SDP 3B 26 40.2% 33.8 32 37 33 7.8 207 293
8 Edwin Encarnacion SEA/NYY 1B 36 33.5% 34.0 34 32 38 2.1 414 86
9 Pete Alonso NYM 1B 24 32.4% 39.8 53 9.3 53 447
10 Eugenio Suarez CIN 3B 27 32.2% 40.2 49 34 26 7.2 147 353
11 Francisco Lindor CLE SS 25 29.6% 34.2 32 38 33 8.6 130 370
12 Ronald Acuna ATL CF 21 28.7% 30.8 41 26 11.1 67 433
13 Giancarlo Stanton NYY LF 29 27.7% 24.0 3 38 59 6.2 308 192
14 Christian Yelich MIL RF 27 26.4% 37.0 44 36 18 7.5 139 361
15 Alex Bregman HOU 3B 25 25.0% 34.0 41 31 19 8.8 99 401
16 J. D. Martinez BOS DH 31 22.3% 39.8 36 43 45 4.9 231 269
17 Trevor Story COL SS 26 22.0% 33.8 35 37 24 8.0 123 377
18 Freddie Freeman ATL 1B 29 20.3% 31.3 38 23 28 6.1 227 273
19 Joey Gallo TEX CF 25 19.0% 31.2 22 40 41 8.6 110 390
20 Kyle Schwarber CHC LF 26 18.7% 32.7 38 26 30 8.2 110 390
21 Matt Olson OAK 1B 25 18.2% 31.7 36 29 24 8.8 89 411
22 Gleyber Torres NYY SS 22 18.1% 28.5 38 24 10.5 62 438
23 Juan Soto WAS LF 20 16.6% 25.5 34 22 11.6 56 444
24 Jorge Soler KCR DH 27 16.0% 36.0 48 9 2 7.6 86 414
25 Paul Goldschmidt STL 1B 31 15.0% 34.0 34 33 36 4.9 243 257
Page: 1 , 2 , 3 ... 57