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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2017 2016 2015 Yrs Career Needed
1 Jake Arrieta CHC SP 31 0.0% 16.7 14 18 22 5.2 88 212
2 Dallas Keuchel HOU SP 29 0.0% 13.3 14 9 20 6.3 64 236
3 Gerrit Cole PIT SP 26 0.0% 11.5 12 7 19 7.9 59 241
4 Zack Greinke ARI SP 33 0.0% 16.0 17 13 19 3.8 172 128
5 Collin McHugh HOU SP 30 0.0% 10.0 5 13 19 6.0 48 252
6 Madison Bumgarner SFG SP 27 0.0% 10.0 4 15 18 7.3 104 196
7 Felix Hernandez SEA SP 31 0.0% 9.7 6 11 18 5.3 160 140
8 David Price BOS SP 31 0.0% 11.7 6 17 18 4.9 127 173
9 Michael Wacha STL SP 26 0.0% 11.2 12 7 17 8.4 45 255
10 Clayton Kershaw LAD SP 29 14.6% 15.7 18 12 16 6.4 144 156
11 Garrett Richards LAA SP 29 0.0% 2.8 0 1 15 6.5 40 260
12 Carlos Carrasco CLE SP 30 0.0% 15.0 18 11 14 5.8 62 238
13 Bartolo Colon ATL/MIN SP 44 0.0% 10.8 7 15 14 1.5 240 60
14 Jacob deGrom NYM SP 29 0.0% 12.2 15 7 14 6.6 45 255
15 Rubby De La Rosa ARI RP 28 0.0% 3.7 0 4 14 7.0 26 274
16 Sonny Gray OAK/NYY SP 27 0.0% 9.0 10 5 14 7.4 48 252
17 Carlos Martinez STL SP 25 0.0% 13.7 12 16 14 8.5 46 254
18 Danny Salazar CLE SP 27 0.0% 8.5 5 11 14 7.5 38 262
19 Max Scherzer WAS SP 32 0.0% 17.0 16 20 14 4.2 141 159
20 Marco Estrada TOR SP 33 0.0% 10.2 10 9 13 3.6 55 245
21 Yovani Gallardo SEA SP 31 0.0% 6.7 5 6 13 5.2 113 187
22 Cole Hamels TEX SP 33 0.0% 12.7 11 15 13 3.9 147 153
23 Matt Harvey NYM SP 28 0.0% 6.0 5 4 13 7.0 34 266
24 John Lackey CHC SP 38 0.0% 11.8 12 11 13 1.5 188 112
25 Chris Sale BOS SP 28 5.1% 16.3 17 17 13 7.0 91 209
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