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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2017 2016 2015 Yrs Career Needed
1 Bartolo Colon ATL/MIN SP 44 0.0% 10.8 7 15 14 1.5 240 60
2 Ichiro Suzuki MIA RF 43 0.0% 0.0 0 1.5 0 300
3 R. A. Dickey ATL SP 42 0.0% 10.2 10 10 11 1.5 120 180
4 Koji Uehara CHC RP 42 0.0% 2.5 3 2 2 1.5 22 278
5 Jason Grilli TOR/TEX RP 40 0.0% 3.8 2 7 3 1.5 34 266
6 Bronson Arroyo CIN SP 40 0.0% 2.3 3 1.5 148 152
7 Fernando Rodney ARI RP 40 0.0% 4.3 5 2 7 1.5 44 256
8 Carlos Beltran HOU DH 40 0.0% 0.0 1.5
9 Joaquin Benoit PHI/PIT RP 39 0.0% 2.5 1 3 6 1.5 58 242
10 Chad Qualls COL RP 38 0.0% 1.7 1 2 3 1.5 52 248
11 John Lackey CHC SP 38 0.0% 11.8 12 11 13 1.5 188 112
12 Peter Moylan KCR RP 38 0.0% 0.8 0 2 1 1.5 24 276
13 Chase Utley LAD 2B 38 0.0% 0.0 1.5
14 Victor Martinez DET DH 38 0.0% 0.0 1.5
15 Carlos Ruiz SEA C 38 0.0% 0.0 0 1.5 0 300
16 Adrian Beltre TEX 3B 38 0.0% 0.0 1.5
17 Jeremy Guthrie WAS SP 38 0.0% 1.3 0 8 1.5 91 209
18 Jayson Werth WAS LF 38 0.0% 0.0 1.5
19 Chris Young KCR RP 38 0.0% 2.8 0 3 11 1.5 79 221
20 Brad Ziegler MIA RP 37 0.0% 1.8 1 4 0 1.5 35 265
21 Matt Holliday NYY DH 37 0.0% 0.0 1.5
22 Albert Pujols LAA DH 37 0.0% 0.0 1.5
23 Rich Hill LAD SP 37 0.0% 10.3 12 12 2 1.6 50 250
24 Matt Belisle MIN RP 37 0.0% 1.5 2 0 1 1.8 51 249
25 Erik Kratz NYY C 37 0.0% 0.0 0 1.8 0 300
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