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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2012 2011 2010 Yrs Career Needed
1 CC Sabathia NYY SP 31 26.9% 17.3 15 19 21 4.8 191 109
2 Justin Verlander DET SP 29 20.7% 19.5 17 24 18 6.4 124 176
3 Clayton Kershaw LAD SP 24 13.8% 16.2 14 21 13 9.4 61 239
4 Gio Gonzalez WAS SP 26 10.3% 18.3 21 16 15 7.9 59 241
5 Yovani Gallardo MIL SP 26 6.8% 16.0 16 17 14 8.2 69 231
6 David Price TBR SP 26 6.7% 17.2 20 12 19 7.9 61 239
7 Jered Weaver LAA SP 29 6.5% 18.2 20 18 13 6.2 102 198
8 Felix Hernandez SEA SP 26 4.5% 13.3 13 14 13 8.3 98 202
9 Madison Bumgarner SFG SP 22 2.4% 13.5 16 13 7 10.3 36 264
10 Trevor Cahill ARI SP 24 1.4% 13.5 13 12 18 9.4 53 247
11 Cole Hamels PHI SP 28 0.0% 15.2 17 14 12 6.9 91 209
12 Jamie Moyer COL SP 49 0.0% 2.5 2 9 1.5 269 31
13 Andy Pettitte NYY SP 40 0.0% 4.3 5 11 1.5 245 55
14 Roy Halladay PHI SP 35 0.0% 15.3 11 19 21 2.9 199 101
15 Tim Hudson ATL SP 36 0.0% 16.2 16 16 17 1.8 197 103
16 Livan Hernandez ATL/MIL RP 37 0.0% 6.3 4 8 10 1.6 178 122
17 Derek Lowe CLE/NYY SP 39 0.0% 10.2 9 9 16 1.5 175 125
18 Mark Buehrle MIA SP 33 0.0% 13.0 13 13 13 4.0 174 126
19 Bartolo Colon OAK SP 39 0.0% 7.7 10 8 1.5 171 129
20 Kevin Millwood SEA SP 37 0.0% 5.0 6 4 4 1.5 169 131
21 Roy Oswalt TEX SP 34 0.0% 7.2 4 9 13 3.1 163 137
22 Barry Zito SFG SP 34 0.0% 11.3 15 3 9 3.5 160 140
23 Freddy Garcia NYY SP 35 0.0% 9.5 7 12 12 2.6 152 148
24 Chris Carpenter STL SP 37 0.0% 6.3 0 11 16 1.7 144 156
25 Jeff Suppan SDP SP 37 0.0% 1.5 2 3 1.5 140 160
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