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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2010 2009 2008 Yrs Career Needed
1 Ken Griffey* SEA DH 40 100.0% 9.3 0 19 18 1.5 630 0
2 Alex Rodriguez* NYY 3B 34 100.0% 30.8 30 30 35 3.0 613 0
3 Jim Thome* MIN DH 39 100.0% 25.8 25 23 34 1.5 589 0
4 Manny Ramirez* LAD/CHW LF 38 100.0% 17.0 9 19 37 1.5 555 0
5 Albert Pujols* STL 1B 30 93.7% 42.8 42 47 37 5.7 408 92
6 Adam Dunn WAS 1B 30 89.0% 38.3 38 38 40 5.6 354 146
7 Miguel Cabrera DET 1B 27 60.8% 36.5 38 34 37 7.7 247 253
8 Vladimir Guerrero TEX DH 35 53.7% 24.0 29 15 27 2.8 436 64
9 Prince Fielder MIL 1B 26 49.9% 37.0 32 46 34 8.3 192 308
10 Mark Teixeira NYY 1B 30 41.3% 35.0 33 39 33 5.9 275 225
11 Ryan Howard PHI 1B 30 37.8% 38.5 31 45 48 5.6 253 247
12 Paul Konerko CHW 1B 34 32.0% 32.5 39 28 22 3.4 365 135
13 Adrian Gonzalez SDP 1B 28 24.6% 34.8 31 40 36 7.1 168 332
14 Mark Reynolds ARI 3B 26 23.2% 35.3 32 44 28 7.9 121 379
15 Andruw Jones CHW RF 33 18.9% 15.7 19 17 3 4.1 407 93
16 Jose Bautista TOR RF 29 14.7% 40.5 54 13 15 6.2 113 387
17 Ryan Braun MIL LF 26 13.3% 29.3 25 32 37 8.0 128 372
18 David Ortiz* BOS DH 34 12.4% 29.2 32 28 23 3.2 349 151
19 Joey Votto CIN 1B 26 9.5% 30.8 37 25 24 7.9 90 410
20 Evan Longoria TBR 3B 24 8.1% 26.5 22 33 27 9.2 82 418
21 Ryan Zimmerman WAS 3B 25 7.5% 25.8 25 33 14 8.5 116 384
22 Carlos Pena TBR 1B 32 6.3% 32.2 28 39 31 4.7 230 270
23 Jay Bruce CIN RF 23 4.3% 23.3 25 22 21 10.1 68 432
24 Dan Uggla FLA 2B 30 4.1% 32.2 33 31 32 5.8 154 346
25 Carlos Lee HOU LF 34 3.7% 25.3 24 26 28 3.6 331 169
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