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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2006 2005 2004 Yrs Career Needed
1 Roger Clemens* HOU SP 43 100.0% 10.8 7 13 18 1.5 348 0
2 Greg Maddux* CHC/LAD SP 40 100.0% 14.5 15 13 16 1.5 333 0
3 Tom Glavine* NYM SP 40 97.8% 13.7 15 13 11 1.5 290 10
4 Randy Johnson* NYY SP 42 76.2% 16.8 17 17 16 1.5 280 20
5 Johan Santana MIN SP 27 12.3% 18.2 19 16 20 7.6 78 222
6 Jon Garland CHW SP 26 11.9% 17.0 18 18 12 7.9 82 218
7 Carlos Zambrano CHC SP 25 8.2% 15.3 16 14 16 9.0 64 236
8 Roy Oswalt HOU SP 28 8.0% 17.5 15 20 20 6.7 98 202
9 Dontrelle Willis FLA SP 24 7.8% 15.0 12 22 10 9.3 58 242
10 Mark Buehrle CHW SP 27 2.7% 14.0 12 16 16 7.6 97 203
11 Barry Zito OAK SP 28 2.1% 14.5 16 14 11 7.1 102 198
12 Jeremy Bonderman DET SP 23 1.9% 13.5 14 14 11 9.8 45 255
13 Freddy Garcia CHW SP 29 1.3% 15.3 17 14 13 6.2 116 184
14 Mike Mussina NYY SP 37 0.0% 13.8 15 13 12 1.5 239 61
15 David Wells BOS/SDP SP 43 0.0% 8.5 3 15 12 1.5 230 70
16 Jamie Moyer SEA/PHI SP 43 0.0% 11.0 11 13 7 1.5 216 84
17 Kenny Rogers DET SP 41 0.0% 16.2 17 14 18 1.5 207 93
18 Curt Schilling BOS SP 39 0.0% 13.7 15 8 21 1.5 207 93
19 Pedro Martinez NYM SP 34 0.0% 12.2 9 15 16 3.2 206 94
20 John Smoltz ATL SP 39 0.0% 12.7 16 14 0 1.5 193 107
21 Andy Pettitte HOU SP 34 0.0% 13.7 14 17 6 3.6 186 114
22 Tim Wakefield BOS SP 39 0.0% 10.8 7 16 12 1.5 151 149
23 Brad Radke MIN SP 33 0.0% 10.8 12 9 11 3.8 148 152
24 Aaron Sele LAD SP 36 0.0% 7.5 8 6 9 2.4 145 155
25 Scott Erickson NYY RP 38 0.0% 0.5 0 1 1 1.5 142 158
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