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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2005 2004 2003 Yrs Career Needed
1 Barry Bonds* SFG LF 40 100.0% 25.0 5 45 45 1.5 708 0
2 Sammy Sosa* BAL RF 36 100.0% 25.3 14 35 40 2.0 588 0
3 Rafael Palmeiro* BAL 1B 40 100.0% 23.0 18 23 38 1.5 569 0
4 Ken Griffey* CIN CF 35 100.0% 26.3 35 20 13 2.6 536 0
5 Manny Ramirez* BOS LF 33 95.5% 43.0 45 43 37 4.1 435 65
6 Alex Rodriguez* NYY 3B 29 95.2% 43.8 48 36 47 6.0 429 71
7 Gary Sheffield* NYY RF 36 91.3% 35.5 34 36 39 2.0 449 51
8 Andruw Jones ATL CF 28 86.3% 41.2 51 29 36 7.1 301 199
9 Albert Pujols* STL 1B 25 75.5% 43.0 41 46 43 8.7 201 299
10 Jim Thome* PHI 1B 34 61.9% 25.3 7 42 47 3.1 430 70
11 Carlos Delgado FLA 1B 33 59.3% 34.2 33 32 42 4.2 369 131
12 Adam Dunn CIN LF 25 50.3% 39.8 40 46 27 8.6 158 342
13 Vladimir Guerrero LAA RF 30 48.1% 33.2 32 39 25 5.8 305 195
14 Mark Teixeira TEX 1B 25 36.9% 38.5 43 38 26 8.9 107 393
15 David Ortiz* BOS DH 29 31.6% 42.3 47 41 31 6.2 177 323
16 Derrek Lee CHC 1B 29 31.2% 38.8 46 32 31 6.1 208 292
17 Paul Konerko CHW 1B 29 31.0% 36.7 40 41 18 6.4 210 290
18 Miguel Cabrera FLA LF 22 24.6% 29.5 33 33 12 10.7 78 422
19 Aramis Ramirez CHC 3B 27 22.9% 32.0 31 36 27 7.8 158 342
20 Adrian Beltre SEA 3B 26 22.5% 29.3 19 48 23 8.3 166 334
21 Eric Chavez OAK 3B 27 17.4% 28.0 27 29 29 7.5 190 310
22 Troy Glaus ARI 3B 28 15.7% 27.8 37 18 16 6.7 219 281
23 Carlos Lee MIL LF 29 15.6% 31.5 32 31 31 6.6 184 316
24 Richie Sexson SEA 1B 30 15.5% 30.0 39 9 45 5.7 239 261
25 Frank Thomas* CHW DH 37 13.7% 19.0 12 18 42 1.7 448 52
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