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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2005 2004 2003 Yrs Career Needed
1 Roger Clemens* HOU SP 42 100.0% 15.3 13 18 17 1.5 341 0
2 Greg Maddux* CHC SP 39 100.0% 14.5 13 16 16 1.5 318 0
3 Tom Glavine* NYM SP 39 20.0% 11.7 13 11 9 1.5 275 25
4 Dontrelle Willis FLA SP 23 15.1% 16.7 22 10 14 9.9 46 254
5 Roy Oswalt HOU SP 27 11.6% 18.3 20 20 10 7.3 83 217
6 Randy Johnson* NYY SP 41 10.1% 14.8 17 16 6 1.5 263 37
7 Mark Buehrle CHW SP 26 10.0% 15.7 16 16 14 8.2 85 215
8 Mark Mulder STL SP 27 7.8% 16.2 16 17 15 7.3 97 203
9 Johan Santana MIN SP 26 6.8% 16.7 16 20 12 8.2 59 241
10 Bartolo Colon LAA SP 32 5.9% 19.0 21 18 15 4.7 139 161
11 Pedro Martinez NYM SP 33 5.8% 15.2 15 16 14 3.8 197 103
12 Carlos Zambrano CHC SP 24 5.0% 14.5 14 16 13 9.6 48 252
13 Jon Garland CHW SP 25 4.3% 15.0 18 12 12 8.5 64 236
14 CC Sabathia CLE SP 24 2.1% 13.3 15 11 13 9.0 69 231
15 Jake Peavy SDP SP 24 0.8% 13.5 13 15 12 9.5 46 254
16 David Wells BOS SP 42 0.0% 14.0 15 12 15 1.5 227 73
17 Mike Mussina NYY SP 36 0.0% 13.3 13 12 17 2.1 224 76
18 Kevin Brown NYY SP 40 0.0% 7.7 4 10 14 1.5 211 89
19 Jamie Moyer SEA SP 42 0.0% 12.3 13 7 21 1.5 205 95
20 Curt Schilling BOS SP 38 0.0% 12.3 8 21 8 1.5 192 108
21 Kenny Rogers TEX SP 40 0.0% 15.2 14 18 13 1.5 190 110
22 John Smoltz ATL SP 38 0.0% 10.5 14 0 0 1.5 177 123
23 Andy Pettitte HOU SP 33 0.0% 14.0 17 6 21 4.2 172 128
24 Al Leiter FLA/NYY SP 39 0.0% 9.3 7 10 15 1.5 162 138
25 Tim Wakefield BOS SP 38 0.0% 13.8 16 12 11 1.5 144 156
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