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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2003 2002 2001 Yrs Career Needed
1 Roger Clemens* NYY SP 40 100.0% 16.2 17 13 20 1.5 310 0
2 Greg Maddux* ATL SP 37 97.9% 16.2 16 16 17 1.7 289 11
3 Barry Zito OAK SP 25 15.3% 17.5 14 23 17 8.9 61 239
4 Roy Halladay TOR SP 26 12.7% 18.2 22 19 5 8.3 59 241
5 Mark Mulder OAK SP 25 12.1% 17.3 15 19 21 8.5 64 236
6 Andy Pettitte NYY SP 31 11.7% 17.3 21 13 15 5.4 149 151
7 Mark Buehrle CHW SP 24 11.1% 16.0 14 19 16 9.4 53 247
8 Mike Mussina NYY SP 34 6.0% 17.3 17 18 17 3.3 199 101
9 Russ Ortiz ATL SP 29 5.7% 18.0 21 14 17 6.6 88 212
10 Pedro Martinez BOS SP 31 5.2% 14.8 14 20 7 5.0 166 134
11 CC Sabathia CLE SP 22 4.4% 13.7 13 13 17 10.2 43 257
12 Tim Hudson OAK SP 27 2.5% 16.0 16 15 18 7.2 80 220
13 Mark Prior CHC SP 22 0.4% 13.5 18 6 10.3 24 276
14 Freddy Garcia SEA SP 26 0.0% 14.3 12 16 18 8.0 72 228
15 Tom Glavine* NYM SP 37 0.0% 13.2 9 18 16 1.6 251 49
16 Randy Johnson* ARI SP 39 0.0% 14.5 6 24 21 1.5 230 70
17 David Wells NYY SP 40 0.0% 14.7 15 19 5 1.5 200 100
18 Kevin Brown LAD SP 38 0.0% 10.5 14 3 10 1.5 197 103
19 David Cone NYM SP 40 0.0% 2.0 1 9 1.5 194 106
20 Jamie Moyer SEA SP 40 0.0% 18.2 21 13 20 1.5 185 115
21 Kevin Appier ANA/KCR SP 35 0.0% 10.5 8 14 11 2.7 169 131
22 John Burkett BOS SP 38 0.0% 12.3 12 13 12 1.5 166 134
23 Curt Schilling ARI SP 36 0.0% 15.3 8 23 22 2.0 163 137
24 John Smoltz ATL RP 36 0.0% 1.5 0 3 3 2.3 163 137
25 Kenny Rogers MIN SP 38 0.0% 11.7 13 13 5 1.5 158 142
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