2003 American League

Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy

Rk	Player	Team	Pos	Age	Prob	EstLvl	2003	2002	2001	Yrs	Career	Needed
1	Barry Bonds*	SFG	LF	38	100.0%	50.0	45	46	73	1.5	658	0
2	Sammy Sosa*	CHC	RF	34	100.0%	47.0	40	49	64	3.2	539	0
3	Rafael Palmeiro*	TEX	DH	38	100.0%	41.2	38	43	47	1.5	528	0
4	Fred McGriff	LAD	1B	39	98.7%	21.7	13	30	31	1.5	491	9
5	Ken Griffey*	CIN	CF	33	95.6%	12.8	13	8	22	3.8	481	19
6	Jim Thome*	PHI	1B	32	92.9%	49.0	47	52	49	4.3	381	119
7	Alex Rodriguez*	TEX	SS	27	91.2%	51.2	47	57	52	7.2	345	155
8	Jeff Bagwell	HOU	1B	35	82.0%	36.3	39	31	39	2.9	419	81
9	Manny Ramirez*	BOS	LF	31	77.0%	36.3	37	33	41	5.3	347	153
10	Frank Thomas*	CHW	DH	35	63.1%	31.5	42	28	4	2.9	418	82
11	Juan Gonzalez	TEX	RF	33	59.2%	20.5	24	8	35	3.8	429	71
12	Carlos Delgado	TOR	1B	31	55.9%	38.5	42	33	39	5.4	304	196
13	Andruw Jones	ATL	CF	26	55.0%	35.3	36	35	34	8.3	221	279
14	Albert Pujols*	STL	LF	23	50.3%	39.0	43	34	37	9.9	114	386
15	Gary Sheffield*	ATL	RF	34	40.3%	33.8	39	25	36	3.2	379	121
16	Richie Sexson	MIL	1B	28	38.5%	39.7	45	29	45	6.9	191	309
17	Vladimir Guerrero	MON	RF	28	31.6%	31.2	25	39	34	7.0	234	266
18	Jason Giambi	NYY	1B	32	29.1%	40.5	41	41	38	4.5	269	231
19	Todd Helton	COL	1B	29	25.0%	34.7	33	30	49	6.1	219	281
20	Eric Chavez	OAK	3B	25	23.8%	31.2	29	34	32	8.7	134	366
21	Shawn Green	LAD	RF	30	22.0%	31.7	19	42	49	5.6	253	247
22	Chipper Jones	ATL	LF	31	18.5%	28.5	27	26	38	5.3	280	220
23	Alfonso Soriano	NYY	2B	27	15.4%	35.0	38	39	18	7.5	98	402
24	Scott Rolen	STL	3B	28	15.3%	28.5	28	31	25	7.1	192	308
25	Lance Berkman	HOU	LF	27	15.1%	32.2	25	42	34	7.6	126	374

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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns