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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2003 2002 2001 Yrs Career Needed
1 Barry Bonds* SFG LF 38 100.0% 50.0 45 46 73 1.5 658 0
2 Sammy Sosa* CHC RF 34 100.0% 47.0 40 49 64 3.2 539 0
3 Rafael Palmeiro* TEX DH 38 100.0% 41.2 38 43 47 1.5 528 0
4 Fred McGriff LAD 1B 39 98.7% 21.7 13 30 31 1.5 491 9
5 Ken Griffey* CIN CF 33 95.6% 12.8 13 8 22 3.8 481 19
6 Jim Thome* PHI 1B 32 92.9% 49.0 47 52 49 4.3 381 119
7 Alex Rodriguez* TEX SS 27 91.2% 51.2 47 57 52 7.2 345 155
8 Jeff Bagwell HOU 1B 35 82.0% 36.3 39 31 39 2.9 419 81
9 Manny Ramirez* BOS LF 31 77.0% 36.3 37 33 41 5.3 347 153
10 Frank Thomas* CHW DH 35 63.1% 31.5 42 28 4 2.9 418 82
11 Juan Gonzalez TEX RF 33 59.2% 20.5 24 8 35 3.8 429 71
12 Carlos Delgado TOR 1B 31 55.9% 38.5 42 33 39 5.4 304 196
13 Andruw Jones ATL CF 26 55.0% 35.3 36 35 34 8.3 221 279
14 Albert Pujols* STL LF 23 50.3% 39.0 43 34 37 9.9 114 386
15 Gary Sheffield* ATL RF 34 40.3% 33.8 39 25 36 3.2 379 121
16 Richie Sexson MIL 1B 28 38.5% 39.7 45 29 45 6.9 191 309
17 Vladimir Guerrero MON RF 28 31.6% 31.2 25 39 34 7.0 234 266
18 Jason Giambi NYY 1B 32 29.1% 40.5 41 41 38 4.5 269 231
19 Todd Helton COL 1B 29 25.0% 34.7 33 30 49 6.1 219 281
20 Eric Chavez OAK 3B 25 23.8% 31.2 29 34 32 8.7 134 366
21 Shawn Green LAD RF 30 22.0% 31.7 19 42 49 5.6 253 247
22 Chipper Jones ATL LF 31 18.5% 28.5 27 26 38 5.3 280 220
23 Alfonso Soriano NYY 2B 27 15.4% 35.0 38 39 18 7.5 98 402
24 Scott Rolen STL 3B 28 15.3% 28.5 28 31 25 7.1 192 308
25 Lance Berkman HOU LF 27 15.1% 32.2 25 42 34 7.6 126 374
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