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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2001 2000 1999 Yrs Career Needed
1 Roger Clemens* NYY SP 38 75.0% 16.7 20 13 14 1.5 280 20
2 Greg Maddux* ATL SP 35 70.2% 18.0 17 19 19 2.9 257 43
3 Tom Glavine* ATL SP 35 14.7% 17.3 16 21 14 2.8 224 76
4 Tim Hudson OAK SP 25 8.7% 17.5 18 20 11 8.4 49 251
5 Andy Pettitte NYY SP 29 7.4% 16.2 15 19 14 6.6 115 185
6 Mark Mulder OAK SP 23 6.3% 15.8 21 9 9.7 30 270
7 Freddy Garcia SEA SP 24 3.1% 14.8 18 9 17 9.2 44 256
8 Mike Hampton COL SP 28 2.3% 15.7 14 15 22 6.7 99 201
9 CC Sabathia CLE SP 20 1.5% 12.8 17 11.4 17 283
10 Chan Ho Park LAD SP 28 1.3% 15.7 15 18 13 7.2 80 220
11 Russ Ortiz SFG SP 27 0.8% 16.2 17 14 18 7.8 53 247
12 Matt Morris STL SP 26 0.7% 16.5 22 3 7.9 44 256
13 Randy Johnson* ARI SP 37 0.0% 19.7 21 19 17 1.5 200 100
14 David Cone BOS SP 38 0.0% 7.8 9 4 12 1.5 193 107
15 Chuck Finley CLE SP 38 0.0% 11.3 8 16 12 1.5 189 111
16 Kevin Brown LAD SP 36 0.0% 12.3 10 13 18 2.2 180 120
17 Bret Saberhagen BOS SP 37 0.0% 2.2 1 10 1.7 167 133
18 David Wells CHW SP 38 0.0% 12.0 5 20 17 1.5 166 134
19 Mike Mussina NYY SP 32 0.0% 15.2 17 11 18 4.5 164 136
20 John Smoltz ATL RP 34 0.0% 3.3 3 11 3.5 160 140
21 Jamie Moyer SEA SP 38 0.0% 16.7 20 13 14 1.5 151 149
22 Andy Benes STL SP 33 0.0% 9.7 7 12 13 3.7 150 150
23 Kevin Appier NYM SP 33 0.0% 13.2 11 15 16 3.9 147 153
24 Kevin Tapani CHC SP 37 0.0% 8.2 9 8 6 1.6 143 157
25 Bobby Witt ARI SP 37 0.0% 3.2 4 0 7 1.7 142 158
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