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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2001 2000 1999 Yrs Career Needed
1 Mark McGwire* STL 1B 37 100.0% 36.0 29 32 65 1.5 583 0
2 Barry Bonds* SFG LF 36 100.0% 58.5 73 49 34 1.8 567 0
3 Sammy Sosa* CHC RF 32 97.5% 59.2 64 50 63 4.4 450 50
4 Rafael Palmeiro* TEX 1B 36 96.4% 44.3 47 39 47 1.9 447 53
5 Ken Griffey* CIN CF 31 96.3% 32.3 22 40 48 5.0 460 40
6 Juan Gonzalez CLE RF 31 90.5% 31.3 35 22 39 5.0 397 103
7 Alex Rodriguez* TEX SS 25 84.4% 46.7 52 41 42 8.4 241 259
8 Manny Ramirez* BOS DH 29 68.9% 40.5 41 38 44 6.5 277 223
9 Jeff Bagwell HOU 1B 33 65.7% 42.2 39 47 42 4.1 349 151
10 Jim Thome* CLE 1B 30 56.7% 42.3 49 37 33 5.5 282 218
11 Carlos Delgado TOR 1B 29 48.5% 40.5 39 41 44 6.6 229 271
12 Troy Glaus ANA 3B 24 47.2% 41.0 41 47 29 9.1 118 382
13 Vladimir Guerrero MON RF 26 45.7% 38.7 34 44 42 8.2 170 330
14 Todd Helton COL 1B 27 43.8% 44.3 49 42 35 7.3 156 344
15 Chipper Jones ATL 3B 29 41.5% 38.5 38 36 45 6.5 227 273
16 Gary Sheffield* LAD LF 32 41.0% 38.0 36 43 34 4.4 315 185
17 Andruw Jones ATL CF 24 40.3% 33.3 34 36 26 9.5 150 350
18 Jose Canseco CHW DH 36 38.5% 18.7 16 15 34 1.8 462 38
19 Shawn Green LAD RF 28 37.4% 39.5 49 24 42 6.8 192 308
20 Mike Piazza NYM C 32 36.5% 37.3 36 38 40 4.3 314 186
21 Fred McGriff TBD/CHC 1B 37 36.1% 29.8 31 27 32 1.5 448 52
22 Richie Sexson MIL 1B 26 29.6% 37.7 45 30 31 8.1 117 383
23 Jason Giambi OAK 1B 30 20.9% 38.8 38 43 33 5.7 187 313
24 Albert Pujols* STL RF 21 16.7% 27.8 37 11.1 37 463
25 Tony Batista TOR/BAL 3B 27 12.4% 31.3 25 41 31 7.5 125 375
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