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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1995 1994 1993 Yrs Career Needed
1 Eddie Murray* CLE DH 39 97.0% 20.7 21 17 27 1.5 479 21
2 Frank Thomas* CHW 1B 27 46.2% 39.5 40 38 41 7.7 182 318
3 Barry Bonds* SFG LF 30 45.4% 36.5 33 37 46 5.4 292 208
4 Albert Belle CLE LF 28 44.7% 43.3 50 36 38 6.7 194 306
5 Ken Griffey* SEA CF 25 31.5% 29.3 17 40 45 8.6 189 311
6 Fred McGriff ATL 1B 31 23.5% 31.0 27 34 37 5.0 289 211
7 Matt Williams SFG 3B 29 23.1% 32.2 23 43 38 6.2 225 275
8 Juan Gonzalez TEX DH 25 20.9% 27.5 27 19 46 8.6 167 333
9 Sammy Sosa* CHC RF 26 19.2% 31.8 36 25 33 8.0 131 369
10 Mark McGwire* OAK 1B 31 14.9% 29.3 39 9 9 5.0 277 223
11 Jose Canseco BOS DH 30 14.8% 24.0 24 31 10 5.4 300 200
12 Mo Vaughn BOS 1B 27 13.4% 33.0 39 26 29 7.5 111 389
13 Rafael Palmeiro* BAL 1B 30 10.4% 33.3 39 23 37 5.5 194 306
14 Cecil Fielder DET 1B 31 8.9% 29.8 31 28 30 4.9 250 250
15 Mike Piazza LAD C 26 7.8% 29.8 32 24 35 7.9 92 408
16 Tim Salmon CAL RF 26 7.4% 29.8 34 23 31 7.9 90 410
17 Jeff Bagwell HOU 1B 27 3.7% 26.8 21 39 20 7.7 113 387
18 Larry Walker COL RF 28 2.6% 28.0 36 19 22 6.9 135 365
19 Manny Ramirez* CLE RF 23 2.4% 23.3 31 17 2 10.1 50 450
20 Jay Buhner SEA RF 30 2.1% 31.5 40 21 27 5.5 169 331
21 Dave Winfield CLE DH 43 0.0% 7.8 2 10 21 1.5 465 35
22 Andre Dawson FLA RF 40 0.0% 11.5 8 16 13 1.5 436 64
23 Joe Carter TOR LF 35 0.0% 27.0 25 27 33 2.8 327 173
24 Cal Ripken BAL SS 34 0.0% 16.8 17 13 24 3.1 327 173
25 Lance Parrish TOR C 39 0.0% 3.2 4 3 1 1.5 324 176
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