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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1993 1992 1991 Yrs Career Needed
1 Nolan Ryan* TEX SP 46 100.0% 6.2 5 5 12 1.5 324 0
2 Greg Maddux* ATL SP 27 29.5% 19.2 20 20 15 7.7 115 185
3 Tom Glavine* ATL SP 27 28.2% 21.0 22 20 20 7.6 95 205
4 Jack McDowell CHW SP 27 20.5% 20.5 22 20 17 7.5 81 219
5 Steve Avery ATL SP 23 13.1% 15.7 18 11 18 10.1 50 250
6 Kevin Appier KCR SP 25 8.1% 16.2 18 15 13 8.7 59 241
7 Roger Clemens* BOS SP 30 7.7% 14.5 11 18 18 5.5 163 137
8 John Smoltz ATL SP 26 4.1% 14.8 15 15 14 8.3 72 228
9 Dwight Gooden NYM SP 28 3.8% 11.5 12 10 13 6.8 154 146
10 Jose Rijo CIN SP 28 0.9% 14.5 14 15 15 7.1 97 203
11 Andy Benes SDP SP 25 0.4% 14.3 15 13 15 8.5 59 241
12 Alex Fernandez CHW SP 23 0.2% 13.5 18 8 9 9.7 40 260
13 Jack Morris TOR SP 38 0.0% 13.5 7 21 18 1.5 244 56
14 Frank Tanana NYM/NYY SP 39 0.0% 10.0 7 13 13 1.5 240 60
15 Charlie Hough FLA SP 45 0.0% 8.3 9 7 9 1.5 211 89
16 Dennis Martinez MON SP 39 0.0% 15.2 15 16 14 1.5 208 92
17 Bob Welch OAK SP 36 0.0% 10.2 9 11 12 2.0 208 92
18 Dennis Eckersley OAK RP 38 0.0% 4.2 2 7 5 1.5 183 117
19 John Candelaria PIT RP 39 0.0% 0.8 0 2 1 1.5 177 123
20 Dave Stieb CHW SP 35 0.0% 2.5 1 4 4 2.4 175 125
21 Frank Viola BOS SP 33 0.0% 12.0 11 13 13 4.1 174 126
22 Rick Sutcliffe BAL SP 37 0.0% 11.3 10 16 6 1.8 165 135
23 Bill Gullickson DET SP 34 0.0% 14.5 13 14 20 3.4 158 142
24 Dave Stewart TOR SP 36 0.0% 11.8 12 12 11 2.2 158 142
25 Scott Sanderson CAL/SFG SP 36 0.0% 12.2 11 12 16 1.8 154 146
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