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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1985 1984 1983 Yrs Career Needed
1 Steve Carlton* PHI SP 40 100.0% 7.3 1 13 15 1.5 314 0
2 Tom Seaver* CHW SP 40 100.0% 14.5 16 15 9 1.5 304 0
3 Phil Niekro* NYY SP 46 100.0% 15.2 16 16 11 1.5 300 0
4 Don Sutton* OAK/CAL SP 40 98.9% 13.5 15 14 8 1.5 295 5
5 Dwight Gooden NYM SP 20 30.8% 18.0 24 17 11.6 41 259
6 Dan Petry DET SP 26 14.6% 16.7 15 18 19 8.0 93 207
7 Bert Blyleven CLE/MIN SP 34 12.9% 16.0 17 19 7 3.5 212 88
8 Bret Saberhagen KCR SP 21 12.6% 15.0 20 10 11.3 30 270
9 Fernando Valenzuela LAD SP 24 12.2% 15.0 17 12 15 9.2 78 222
10 Jack Morris DET SP 30 9.1% 17.7 16 19 20 5.9 123 177
11 Frank Viola MIN SP 25 6.7% 16.2 18 18 7 8.9 47 253
12 Dave Stieb TOR SP 27 3.5% 15.2 14 16 17 7.2 95 205
13 Tommy John CAL/OAK SP 42 0.0% 6.2 4 7 11 1.5 259 41
14 Nolan Ryan* HOU SP 38 0.0% 11.3 10 12 14 1.5 241 59
15 Jerry Koosman PHI SP 42 0.0% 9.5 6 14 11 1.5 222 78
16 Joe Niekro HOU/NYY SP 40 0.0% 13.3 11 16 15 1.5 204 96
17 Vida Blue SFG SP 35 0.0% 6.0 8 0 2.4 199 101
18 Jerry Reuss LAD SP 36 0.0% 10.7 14 5 12 2.4 192 108
19 Steve Rogers MON SP 35 0.0% 5.8 2 6 17 2.6 158 142
20 Ron Guidry NYY SP 34 0.0% 17.8 22 10 21 3.1 154 146
21 Rick Reuschel PIT SP 36 0.0% 10.5 14 5 1 2.3 153 147
22 Burt Hooton TEX SP 35 0.0% 5.0 5 3 9 2.8 151 149
23 Doyle Alexander TOR SP 34 0.0% 15.3 17 17 7 3.1 149 151
24 Jim Slaton CAL SP 35 0.0% 7.7 6 7 14 3.0 147 153
25 Frank Tanana TEX/DET SP 31 0.0% 12.2 12 15 7 4.8 147 153
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