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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1985 1984 1983 Yrs Career Needed
1 Reggie Jackson* CAL RF 39 100.0% 24.2 27 25 14 1.5 530 0
2 Mike Schmidt* PHI 1B 35 96.4% 35.2 33 36 40 2.5 458 42
3 Dale Murphy ATL CF 29 39.1% 36.5 37 36 36 6.4 237 263
4 Eddie Murray* BAL 1B 29 31.0% 30.7 31 29 33 6.4 258 242
5 Jim Rice BOS LF 32 30.0% 29.3 27 28 39 4.6 331 169
6 Tom Brunansky MIN RF 24 17.1% 28.8 27 32 28 9.1 110 390
7 Darryl Strawberry NYM RF 23 15.7% 27.5 29 26 26 10.0 81 419
8 Dave Kingman OAK DH 36 14.6% 28.8 30 35 13 2.1 407 93
9 Lance Parrish DET C 29 12.6% 29.5 28 33 27 6.6 190 310
10 Cal Ripken BAL SS 24 11.4% 26.5 26 27 27 9.1 108 392
11 Gary Carter NYM C 31 7.9% 27.8 32 27 17 5.3 247 253
12 Don Mattingly NYY 1B 24 6.8% 26.3 35 23 4 9.5 62 438
13 Ron Kittle CHW LF 27 4.6% 29.5 26 32 35 7.5 94 406
14 Tony Armas BOS CF 31 3.3% 31.8 23 43 36 4.8 213 287
15 Harold Baines CHW RF 26 1.8% 24.0 22 29 20 8.2 119 381
16 Tony Perez CIN 1B 43 0.0% 4.7 6 2 6 1.5 377 123
17 Graig Nettles SDP 3B 40 0.0% 17.5 15 20 20 1.5 368 132
18 George Foster NYM LF 36 0.0% 23.2 21 24 28 2.1 334 166
19 Darrell Evans DET 1B 38 0.0% 30.3 40 16 30 1.5 318 182
20 Ron Cey CHC 3B 37 0.0% 23.3 22 25 24 1.6 299 201
21 Rusty Staub NYM RF 41 0.0% 1.3 1 1 3 1.5 292 208
22 Don Baylor NYY DH 36 0.0% 24.0 23 27 21 2.4 284 216
23 Dave Winfield NYY RF 33 0.0% 24.7 26 19 32 3.8 281 219
24 Carlton Fisk CHW C 37 0.0% 29.8 37 21 26 1.5 267 233
25 Dwight Evans BOS RF 33 0.0% 28.8 29 32 22 3.8 265 235
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