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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1984 1983 1982 Yrs Career Needed
1 Reggie Jackson* CAL DH 38 100.0% 23.7 25 14 39 1.5 503 0
2 Mike Schmidt* PHI 3B 34 94.0% 37.2 36 40 35 3.1 425 75
3 Dale Murphy ATL CF 28 34.2% 36.0 36 36 36 7.0 200 300
4 Jim Rice BOS LF 31 32.4% 31.0 28 39 24 5.2 304 196
5 Eddie Murray* BAL 1B 28 28.9% 30.8 29 33 32 7.0 227 273
6 Tom Brunansky MIN RF 23 16.6% 28.7 32 28 20 9.7 83 417
7 Tony Armas BOS CF 30 16.5% 38.2 43 36 28 5.4 190 310
8 Lance Parrish DET C 28 15.4% 30.8 33 27 32 7.2 162 338
9 Cal Ripken BAL SS 23 13.0% 27.2 27 27 28 9.7 82 418
10 Dave Kingman OAK DH 35 11.1% 28.0 35 13 37 2.7 377 123
11 Harold Baines CHW RF 25 5.5% 25.3 29 20 25 8.8 97 403
12 Ron Kittle CHW LF 26 2.2% 27.8 32 35 1 8.1 68 432
13 Darryl Strawberry NYM RF 22 1.3% 21.7 26 26 10.6 52 448
14 Tony Perez CIN 1B 42 0.0% 4.0 2 6 6 1.5 371 129
15 Graig Nettles SDP 3B 39 0.0% 19.7 20 20 18 1.5 353 147
16 George Foster NYM LF 35 0.0% 23.5 24 28 13 2.7 313 187
17 Greg Luzinski CHW DH 33 0.0% 20.2 13 32 18 3.8 307 193
18 Rusty Staub NYM 1B 40 0.0% 2.0 1 3 3 1.5 291 209
19 Darrell Evans DET DH 37 0.0% 20.7 16 30 16 1.7 278 222
20 Ron Cey CHC 3B 36 0.0% 24.5 25 24 24 2.2 277 223
21 Joe Morgan OAK 2B 40 0.0% 10.7 6 16 14 1.5 268 232
22 Don Baylor NYY DH 35 0.0% 24.5 27 21 24 3.0 261 239
23 Dave Winfield NYY RF 32 0.0% 26.3 19 32 37 4.4 255 245
24 Ken Singleton BAL DH 37 0.0% 11.3 6 18 14 1.8 246 254
25 George Hendrick STL RF 34 0.0% 13.7 9 18 19 3.2 241 259
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