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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1981 1980 1979 Yrs Career Needed
1 Gaylord Perry* ATL SP 42 99.0% 9.3 8 10 12 1.5 297 3
2 Steve Carlton* PHI SP 36 46.1% 17.5 13 24 18 2.1 262 38
3 Tom Seaver* CIN SP 36 14.3% 13.0 14 10 16 2.0 259 41
4 Jim Palmer BAL SP 35 2.0% 10.5 7 16 10 2.6 248 52
5 Dennis Leonard KCR SP 30 1.0% 15.5 13 20 14 5.9 120 180
6 Jack Morris DET SP 26 0.7% 15.2 14 16 17 8.3 51 249
7 Jim Kaat STL RP 42 0.0% 6.2 6 8 3 1.5 278 22
8 Fergie Jenkins TEX SP 38 0.0% 9.2 5 12 16 1.5 264 36
9 Don Sutton* HOU SP 36 0.0% 11.8 11 13 12 2.3 241 59
10 Phil Niekro* ATL SP 42 0.0% 12.0 7 15 21 1.5 240 60
11 Luis Tiant PIT SP 40 0.0% 5.8 2 8 13 1.5 227 73
12 Tommy John NYY SP 38 0.0% 15.3 9 22 21 1.5 223 77
13 Nolan Ryan* HOU SP 34 0.0% 11.8 11 11 16 3.4 189 111
14 Rick Wise SDP SP 35 0.0% 6.5 4 6 15 2.5 188 112
15 Jerry Koosman MIN/CHW SP 38 0.0% 10.7 4 16 20 1.5 180 120
16 Vida Blue SFG SP 31 0.0% 11.0 8 14 14 4.8 178 122
17 Bert Blyleven CLE SP 30 0.0% 10.2 11 8 12 5.9 167 133
18 Mike Torrez BOS SP 34 0.0% 10.7 10 9 16 3.1 165 135
19 Stan Bahnsen MON RP 36 0.0% 3.8 2 7 3 2.1 146 154
20 Rudy May NYY SP 36 0.0% 9.7 6 15 10 1.8 145 155
21 Joe Niekro HOU SP 36 0.0% 14.7 9 20 21 2.0 145 155
22 Jerry Reuss LAD SP 32 0.0% 12.2 10 18 7 4.8 143 157
23 Paul Splittorff KCR SP 34 0.0% 9.7 5 14 15 3.2 142 158
24 Rick Reuschel CHC/NYY SP 32 0.0% 10.7 8 11 18 4.7 133 167
25 Woodie Fryman MON RP 41 0.0% 5.3 5 7 3 1.5 132 168
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