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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1981 1980 1979 Yrs Career Needed
1 Mike Schmidt* PHI 3B 31 53.7% 39.0 31 48 45 4.9 314 186
2 Reggie Jackson* NYY RF 35 51.5% 26.0 15 41 29 2.9 425 75
3 Eddie Murray* BAL 1B 25 11.9% 25.8 22 32 25 8.8 133 367
4 Bob Horner ATL 3B 23 10.5% 24.7 15 35 33 9.7 106 394
5 Jim Rice BOS LF 28 6.2% 23.0 17 24 39 7.0 213 287
6 Dave Kingman NYM 1B 32 3.9% 25.0 22 18 48 4.5 292 208
7 Gorman Thomas MIL RF 30 0.8% 30.7 21 38 45 5.7 158 342
8 Willie Stargell PIT 1B 41 0.0% 9.0 0 11 32 1.5 472 28
9 Carl Yastrzemski BOS DH 41 0.0% 12.0 7 15 21 1.5 426 74
10 Johnny Bench CIN 1B 33 0.0% 15.7 8 24 22 3.9 364 136
11 Tony Perez BOS 1B 39 0.0% 15.0 9 25 13 1.5 357 143
12 Lee May KCR 1B 38 0.0% 5.5 0 7 19 1.5 351 149
13 Bobby Bonds CHC CF 35 0.0% 8.8 6 5 25 2.8 332 168
14 Reggie Smith LAD 1B 36 0.0% 7.2 1 15 10 2.3 296 204
15 Graig Nettles NYY 3B 36 0.0% 16.2 15 16 20 1.9 295 205
16 Rusty Staub NYM 1B 37 0.0% 7.5 5 9 12 1.7 284 216
17 George Foster CIN LF 32 0.0% 24.3 22 25 30 4.5 248 252
18 John Mayberry TOR 1B 32 0.0% 22.0 17 30 21 4.6 245 255
19 Greg Luzinski CHW DH 30 0.0% 19.8 21 19 18 5.6 244 256
20 Bobby Murcer NYY DH 35 0.0% 9.8 6 13 15 2.9 244 256
21 Sal Bando MIL 3B 37 0.0% 4.2 2 5 9 1.6 242 258
22 Joe Morgan SFG 2B 37 0.0% 9.2 8 11 9 1.5 232 268
23 Rick Monday LAD RF 35 0.0% 8.8 11 10 0 2.6 223 277
24 Darrell Evans SFG 3B 34 0.0% 15.5 12 20 17 3.5 216 284
25 Ken Singleton BAL RF 34 0.0% 20.3 13 24 35 3.6 208 292
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