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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1980 1979 1978 Yrs Career Needed
51 Rollie Fingers SDP RP 33 0.0% 9.5 11 9 6 3.7 101 199
52 Jim Bibby PIT SP 35 0.0% 14.8 19 12 8 2.6 100 200
53 Doyle Alexander ATL SP 29 0.0% 10.5 14 5 9 6.1 96 204
54 Mike Marshall MIN RP 37 0.0% 5.5 1 10 10 1.5 94 206
55 Jim Barr CAL SP 32 0.0% 5.2 1 10 8 4.6 92 208
56 Randy Jones SDP SP 30 0.0% 8.3 5 11 13 5.7 92 208
57 Mike Caldwell MIL SP 31 0.0% 15.5 13 16 22 5.1 91 209
58 John Hiller DET RP 37 0.0% 3.3 1 4 9 1.7 87 213
59 Sparky Lyle TEX/PHI RP 35 0.0% 4.7 3 5 9 2.4 87 213
60 Tug McGraw PHI RP 35 0.0% 5.2 5 4 8 2.5 87 213
61 Dick Tidrow CHC RP 33 0.0% 8.5 6 13 7 4.1 87 213
62 Lynn McGlothen CHC SP 30 0.0% 11.2 12 13 5 5.8 85 215
63 Bruce Kison CAL SP 30 0.0% 6.8 3 13 6 5.8 84 216
64 Bob Forsch STL SP 30 0.0% 11.0 11 11 11 5.7 83 217
65 Ken Brett KCR RP 31 0.0% 1.8 0 4 3 4.9 82 218
66 John Candelaria PIT SP 26 0.0% 12.2 11 14 12 8.0 81 219
67 Grant Jackson PIT RP 37 0.0% 7.8 8 8 7 1.5 81 219
68 Ed Figueroa NYY/TEX SP 31 0.0% 6.2 3 4 20 5.0 80 220
69 Ken Forsch HOU SP 33 0.0% 11.3 12 11 10 3.7 78 222
70 John Curtis SDP SP 32 0.0% 9.0 10 10 4 4.6 77 223
71 Dick Ruthven PHI SP 29 0.0% 13.3 17 7 15 6.4 77 223
72 Bill Bonham CIN SP 31 0.0% 5.8 2 9 11 5.0 75 225
73 Larry Gura KCR SP 32 0.0% 16.0 18 13 16 4.4 74 226
74 Steve Busby KCR SP 30 0.0% 2.7 1 6 1 5.5 70 230
75 Pedro Borbon STL RP 33 0.0% 3.8 1 6 8 3.9 69 231
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