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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1980 1979 1978 Yrs Career Needed
26 Rudy May NYY SP 35 0.0% 12.2 15 10 8 2.4 139 161
27 Paul Splittorff KCR SP 33 0.0% 15.2 14 15 19 3.8 137 163
28 Joe Niekro HOU SP 35 0.0% 19.3 20 21 14 2.6 136 164
29 Jerry Reuss LAD SP 31 0.0% 13.5 18 7 3 5.4 133 167
30 Woodie Fryman MON RP 40 0.0% 5.7 7 3 7 1.5 127 173
31 Ron Reed PHI RP 37 0.0% 8.3 7 13 3 1.5 127 173
32 Rick Reuschel CHC SP 31 0.0% 13.8 11 18 14 5.3 125 175
33 Ross Grimsley MON/CLE SP 30 0.0% 9.7 6 10 20 5.7 123 177
34 Burt Hooton LAD SP 30 0.0% 13.8 14 11 19 5.8 119 181
35 Bill Lee MON SP 33 0.0% 9.0 4 16 10 3.9 114 186
36 Marty Pattin KCR RP 37 0.0% 4.2 4 5 3 1.7 114 186
37 Jon Matlack TEX SP 30 0.0% 9.2 10 5 15 5.7 112 188
38 Steve Renko BOS SP 35 0.0% 9.2 9 11 6 2.7 109 191
39 J. R. Richard HOU SP 30 0.0% 14.0 10 18 18 5.8 107 193
40 Jim Slaton MIL SP 30 0.0% 8.3 1 15 17 6.0 105 195
41 Dick Drago BOS RP 35 0.0% 7.5 7 10 4 3.0 104 196
42 Fred Norman MON RP 37 0.0% 7.5 4 11 11 1.5 104 196
43 Reggie Cleveland MIL SP 32 0.0% 8.3 11 1 5 4.7 103 197
44 Dave Goltz LAD SP 31 0.0% 10.7 7 14 15 5.4 103 197
45 Dave Roberts PIT/SEA RP 35 0.0% 3.7 2 5 6 2.5 103 197
46 Jim Rooker PIT SP 37 0.0% 3.8 2 4 9 1.5 103 197
47 Steve Stone BAL SP 32 0.0% 18.8 25 11 12 4.2 103 197
48 Doc Medich TEX SP 31 0.0% 11.8 14 10 9 5.1 102 198
49 Steve Rogers MON SP 30 0.0% 14.5 16 13 13 5.6 102 198
50 Frank Tanana CAL SP 26 0.0% 10.8 11 7 18 7.8 102 198
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