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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1980 1979 1978 Yrs Career Needed
1 Gaylord Perry* TEX/NYY SP 41 97.4% 12.5 10 12 21 1.5 289 11
2 Steve Carlton* PHI SP 35 58.8% 20.7 24 18 16 2.7 249 51
3 Jim Palmer BAL SP 34 29.8% 14.8 16 10 21 3.2 241 59
4 Tom Seaver* CIN SP 35 12.1% 13.0 10 16 16 2.6 245 55
5 Dennis Leonard KCR SP 29 11.4% 18.2 20 14 21 6.5 107 193
6 Vida Blue SFG SP 30 11.4% 14.7 14 14 18 5.4 170 130
7 Dennis Eckersley BOS SP 25 10.8% 15.0 12 17 20 8.6 89 211
8 Mike Flanagan BAL SP 28 7.8% 18.8 16 23 19 6.9 76 224
9 Scott McGregor BAL SP 26 5.0% 16.8 20 13 15 8.1 51 249
10 Mike Norris OAK SP 25 4.8% 16.5 22 5 0 8.8 34 266
11 Don Sutton* LAD SP 35 3.0% 13.0 13 12 15 2.9 230 70
12 Fergie Jenkins TEX SP 37 2.4% 14.3 12 16 18 1.5 259 41
13 Lary Sorensen MIL SP 24 1.7% 14.0 12 15 18 9.2 52 248
14 Ron Guidry NYY SP 29 0.8% 18.7 17 18 25 6.1 76 224
15 Jim Kaat NYY/STL SP 41 0.0% 6.3 8 3 8 1.5 272 28
16 Phil Niekro* ATL SP 41 0.0% 17.7 15 21 19 1.5 233 67
17 Luis Tiant NYY SP 39 0.0% 10.5 8 13 13 1.5 225 75
18 Tommy John NYY SP 37 0.0% 20.8 22 21 17 1.7 214 86
19 Rick Wise SDP SP 34 0.0% 9.5 6 15 9 3.1 184 116
20 Nolan Ryan* HOU SP 33 0.0% 12.5 11 16 10 4.0 178 122
21 Jerry Koosman MIN SP 37 0.0% 15.2 16 20 3 1.5 176 124
22 Bert Blyleven PIT SP 29 0.0% 10.3 8 12 14 6.5 156 144
23 Mike Torrez BOS SP 33 0.0% 12.5 9 16 16 3.7 155 145
24 Jack Billingham DET/BOS RP 37 0.0% 6.3 1 10 15 1.6 145 155
25 Stan Bahnsen MON RP 35 0.0% 5.3 7 3 1 2.7 144 156
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