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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1980 1979 1978 Yrs Career Needed
1 Willie McCovey* SFG 1B 42 100.0% 7.5 1 15 12 1.5 521 0
2 Reggie Jackson* NYY RF 34 85.9% 34.7 41 29 27 3.5 410 90
3 Willie Stargell PIT 1B 40 61.6% 20.8 11 32 28 1.5 472 28
4 Mike Schmidt* PHI 3B 30 58.6% 42.5 48 45 21 5.5 283 217
5 Jim Rice BOS LF 27 31.8% 32.7 24 39 46 7.6 196 304
6 Bob Horner ATL 3B 22 31.1% 32.3 35 33 23 10.3 91 409
7 Johnny Bench CIN C 32 21.8% 23.2 24 22 23 4.5 356 144
8 Eddie Murray* BAL 1B 24 19.6% 28.8 32 25 27 9.4 111 389
9 Gorman Thomas MIL CF 29 17.9% 39.3 38 45 32 6.3 137 363
10 Dave Kingman CHC LF 31 15.6% 29.7 18 48 28 5.1 270 230
11 Dale Murphy ATL CF 24 11.1% 27.3 33 21 23 9.4 79 421
12 Gary Carter MON C 26 5.6% 25.2 29 22 20 8.3 126 374
13 George Foster CIN LF 31 3.8% 29.2 25 30 40 5.1 226 274
14 Jack Clark SFG RF 24 3.3% 23.8 22 26 25 9.2 88 412
15 Carl Yastrzemski BOS DH 40 0.0% 17.3 15 21 17 1.5 419 81
16 Lee May BAL DH 37 0.0% 14.0 7 19 25 1.6 351 149
17 Tony Perez BOS 1B 38 0.0% 19.2 25 13 14 1.5 348 152
18 Bobby Bonds STL LF 34 0.0% 16.0 5 25 31 3.4 326 174
19 Willie Horton SEA DH 37 0.0% 15.5 8 29 11 1.5 325 175
20 Reggie Smith LAD RF 35 0.0% 15.7 15 10 29 2.9 295 205
21 Graig Nettles NYY 3B 35 0.0% 19.2 16 20 27 2.5 280 220
22 Rusty Staub TEX DH 36 0.0% 12.5 9 12 24 2.3 279 221
23 Sal Bando MIL 3B 36 0.0% 8.3 5 9 17 2.2 240 260
24 Bobby Murcer NYY LF 34 0.0% 13.0 13 15 9 3.5 238 262
25 John Mayberry TOR 1B 31 0.0% 25.7 30 21 22 5.2 228 272
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