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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1979 1978 1977 Yrs Career Needed
1 Willie McCovey* SFG 1B 41 100.0% 16.2 15 12 28 1.5 520 0
2 Willie Stargell PIT 1B 39 55.8% 27.5 32 28 13 1.5 461 39
3 Jim Rice BOS LF 26 53.5% 41.3 39 46 39 8.2 172 328
4 Reggie Jackson* NYY RF 33 40.9% 28.8 29 27 32 4.1 369 131
5 Dave Kingman CHC LF 30 36.4% 37.7 48 28 26 5.7 252 248
6 Mike Schmidt* PHI 3B 29 33.1% 35.8 45 21 38 6.1 235 265
7 Johnny Bench CIN C 31 21.8% 23.8 22 23 31 5.1 332 168
8 George Foster CIN LF 30 19.9% 37.0 30 40 52 5.7 201 299
9 Bobby Bonds CLE RF 33 15.2% 29.0 25 31 37 4.0 321 179
10 Greg Luzinski PHI LF 28 12.7% 27.2 18 35 39 6.8 204 296
11 Eddie Murray* BAL 1B 23 11.7% 26.0 25 27 27 10.0 79 421
12 Bob Horner ATL 3B 21 10.5% 24.8 33 23 10.9 56 444
13 Don Baylor CAL LF 30 10.3% 33.5 36 34 25 6.0 167 333
14 Dave Winfield SDP RF 27 8.6% 29.2 34 24 25 7.4 134 366
15 Fred Lynn BOS CF 27 8.1% 29.8 39 22 18 7.6 112 388
16 Gorman Thomas MIL CF 28 7.8% 33.8 45 32 6.9 99 401
17 Jack Clark SFG RF 23 3.2% 23.5 26 25 13 9.8 66 434
18 Jason Thompson DET 1B 24 2.9% 23.8 20 26 31 9.0 94 406
19 Gary Carter MON C 25 0.2% 22.8 22 20 31 8.9 97 403
20 Andre Dawson MON CF 24 0.2% 24.0 25 25 19 9.0 69 431
21 Carl Yastrzemski BOS 1B 39 0.0% 20.8 21 17 28 1.5 404 96
22 Lee May BAL DH 36 0.0% 22.3 19 25 27 2.2 344 156
23 Tony Perez MON 1B 37 0.0% 14.3 13 14 19 1.7 323 177
24 Willie Horton SEA DH 36 0.0% 21.8 29 11 15 2.0 317 183
25 Reggie Smith LAD RF 34 0.0% 20.0 10 29 32 3.5 280 220
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