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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1968 1967 1966 Yrs Career Needed
1 Denny McLain DET SP 24 60.2% 24.5 31 17 20 9.4 90 210
2 Juan Marichal SFG SP 30 43.7% 21.8 26 14 25 5.6 170 130
3 Don Drysdale LAD SP 31 18.0% 13.5 14 13 13 4.8 204 96
4 Dean Chance MIN SP 27 18.0% 16.7 16 20 12 7.8 110 190
5 Jim Maloney CIN SP 28 13.0% 15.7 16 15 16 7.2 122 178
6 Mel Stottlemyre NYY SP 26 12.9% 17.5 21 15 12 8.0 77 223
7 Dave McNally BAL SP 25 11.7% 16.5 22 7 13 8.6 70 230
8 Fergie Jenkins CHC SP 25 10.8% 17.7 20 20 6 8.7 48 252
9 Jim Kaat MIN SP 29 9.6% 16.5 14 16 25 6.2 128 172
10 Milt Pappas CIN/ATL SP 29 7.9% 13.3 12 16 12 6.5 150 150
11 Bob Gibson STL SP 32 4.3% 18.8 22 13 21 4.4 147 153
12 Luis Tiant CLE SP 27 2.4% 16.5 21 12 12 7.4 66 234
13 Mickey Lolich DET SP 27 2.3% 15.5 17 14 14 7.3 83 217
14 Nelson Briles STL SP 24 1.7% 14.8 19 14 4 9.1 40 260
15 Mike McCormick SFG SP 29 1.2% 15.2 12 22 11 6.1 118 182
16 Catfish Hunter OAK SP 22 1.2% 12.3 13 13 9 10.7 43 257
17 Jim Bunning PIT SP 36 0.0% 10.8 4 17 19 2.0 196 104
18 Larry Jackson PHI SP 37 0.0% 13.3 13 13 15 1.8 194 106
19 Camilo Pascual WAS SP 34 0.0% 11.8 13 12 8 3.3 170 130
20 Hoyt Wilhelm CHW RP 45 0.0% 5.5 4 8 5 1.5 130 170
21 Mudcat Grant LAD RP 32 0.0% 6.8 6 5 13 4.3 123 177
22 Gary Bell BOS SP 31 0.0% 12.2 11 13 14 5.0 119 181
23 Chris Short PHI SP 30 0.0% 15.8 19 9 20 5.5 115 185
24 Bill Monbouquette NYY/SFG SP 31 0.0% 5.7 5 6 7 4.9 114 186
25 Ron Kline PIT RP 36 0.0% 9.3 12 7 6 2.2 113 187
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