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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1968 1967 1966 Yrs Career Needed
1 Willie Mays* SFG CF 37 100.0% 25.0 23 22 37 1.7 587 0
2 Mickey Mantle* NYY 1B 36 100.0% 20.2 18 22 23 2.0 536 0
3 Eddie Mathews* DET 3B 36 100.0% 9.5 3 16 16 2.0 512 0
4 Hank Aaron* ATL RF 34 100.0% 34.8 29 39 44 3.4 510 0
5 Ernie Banks* CHC 1B 37 97.0% 26.2 32 23 15 1.6 474 26
6 Harmon Killebrew* MIN 1B 32 88.2% 29.7 17 44 39 4.8 397 103
7 Frank Robinson* BAL RF 32 84.6% 25.7 15 30 49 4.3 418 82
8 Willie McCovey* SFG 1B 30 34.6% 34.3 36 31 36 5.7 268 232
9 Ron Santo CHC 3B 28 21.8% 28.3 26 31 30 7.0 224 276
10 Dick Allen PHI LF 26 21.3% 30.8 33 23 40 8.2 145 355
11 Frank Howard WAS LF 31 19.7% 37.0 44 36 18 4.9 242 258
12 Billy Williams CHC LF 30 14.0% 29.2 30 28 29 6.0 228 272
13 Willie Horton DET LF 25 13.9% 28.8 36 19 27 8.6 113 387
14 Jimmy Wynn HOU CF 26 10.0% 28.3 26 37 18 8.2 112 388
15 Jim Ray Hart SFG 3B 26 9.1% 26.7 23 29 33 8.0 139 361
16 Carl Yastrzemski BOS LF 28 7.0% 28.8 23 44 16 6.7 162 338
17 Ken Harrelson BOS RF 26 1.2% 26.3 35 12 12 7.9 95 405
18 Orlando Cepeda STL 1B 30 0.3% 19.7 16 25 20 5.5 284 216
19 Rocky Colavito LAD/NYY RF 34 0.0% 11.7 8 8 30 3.1 374 126
20 Al Kaline DET RF 33 0.0% 18.2 10 25 29 3.9 314 186
21 Ken Boyer CHW/LAD 3B 37 0.0% 7.7 6 7 14 1.7 282 218
22 Roger Maris STL RF 33 0.0% 7.7 5 9 13 3.7 275 225
23 Norm Cash DET 1B 33 0.0% 25.2 25 22 32 3.8 260 240
24 Bob Allison MIN LF 33 0.0% 20.3 22 24 8 3.6 247 253
25 Leon Wagner CLE/CHW RF 34 0.0% 9.3 1 15 23 3.5 211 289
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