1965 Season

Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy

Rk	Player	Team	Pos	Age	Prob	EstLvl	1965	1964	1963	Yrs	Career	Needed
1	Warren Spahn*	NYM/SFG	SP	44	100.0%	9.3	7	6	23	1.5	363	0
2	Don Drysdale	LAD	SP	28	50.8%	20.7	23	18	19	6.6	164	136
3	Robin Roberts	BAL/HOU	SP	38	42.1%	11.7	10	13	14	1.5	281	19
4	Sandy Koufax	LAD	SP	29	41.4%	23.5	26	19	25	6.3	138	162
5	Juan Marichal	SFG	SP	27	33.9%	22.2	22	21	25	7.4	105	195
6	Tony Cloninger	MIL	SP	24	27.2%	19.8	24	19	9	9.1	67	233
7	Jim Maloney	CIN	SP	25	24.9%	18.8	20	15	23	9.0	75	225
8	Dean Chance	CAL	SP	24	15.5%	16.3	15	20	13	9.6	62	238
9	Milt Pappas	BAL	SP	26	13.5%	14.5	13	16	16	8.3	110	190
10	Dick Ellsworth	CHC	SP	25	10.5%	15.3	14	14	22	8.8	76	224
11	Sammy Ellis	CIN	SP	24	8.1%	16.5	22	10		9.4	34	266
12	Jim Kaat	MIN	SP	26	7.6%	16.3	18	17	10	8.0	73	227
13	Bob Gibson	STL	SP	29	7.5%	19.3	20	19	18	6.2	91	209
14	Mel Stottlemyre	NYY	SP	23	4.4%	15.0	20	9		9.8	29	271
15	Mudcat Grant	MIN	SP	29	2.3%	17.3	21	14	13	6.1	99	201
16	Whitey Ford	NYY	SP	36	1.6%	17.7	16	17	24	2.0	232	68
17	Chris Short	PHI	SP	27	0.9%	16.2	18	17	9	7.3	67	233
18	Lew Burdette	CHC/PHI	RP	38	0.0%	6.3	3	10	9	1.5	195	105
19	Bob Friend	PIT	SP	34	0.0%	11.2	8	13	17	3.2	191	109
20	Curt Simmons	STL	SP	36	0.0%	13.0	9	18	15	2.3	183	117
21	Bob Buhl	CHC	SP	36	0.0%	13.3	13	15	11	1.9	160	140
22	Jim Bunning	PHI	SP	33	0.0%	17.8	19	19	12	3.8	156	144
23	Larry Jackson	CHC	SP	34	0.0%	17.3	14	24	14	3.6	153	147
24	Vern Law	PIT	SP	35	0.0%	13.2	17	12	4	2.8	148	152
25	Camilo Pascual	MIN	SP	31	0.0%	13.0	9	15	21	5.1	137	163

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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins