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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1965 1964 1963 Yrs Career Needed
1 Warren Spahn* NYM/SFG SP 44 100.0% 9.3 7 6 23 1.5 363 0
2 Don Drysdale LAD SP 28 50.8% 20.7 23 18 19 6.6 164 136
3 Robin Roberts BAL/HOU SP 38 42.1% 11.7 10 13 14 1.5 281 19
4 Sandy Koufax LAD SP 29 41.4% 23.5 26 19 25 6.3 138 162
5 Juan Marichal SFG SP 27 33.9% 22.2 22 21 25 7.4 105 195
6 Tony Cloninger MIL SP 24 27.2% 19.8 24 19 9 9.1 67 233
7 Jim Maloney CIN SP 25 24.9% 18.8 20 15 23 9.0 75 225
8 Dean Chance CAL SP 24 15.5% 16.3 15 20 13 9.6 62 238
9 Milt Pappas BAL SP 26 13.5% 14.5 13 16 16 8.3 110 190
10 Dick Ellsworth CHC SP 25 10.5% 15.3 14 14 22 8.8 76 224
11 Sammy Ellis CIN SP 24 8.1% 16.5 22 10 9.4 34 266
12 Jim Kaat MIN SP 26 7.6% 16.3 18 17 10 8.0 73 227
13 Bob Gibson STL SP 29 7.5% 19.3 20 19 18 6.2 91 209
14 Mel Stottlemyre NYY SP 23 4.4% 15.0 20 9 9.8 29 271
15 Mudcat Grant MIN SP 29 2.3% 17.3 21 14 13 6.1 99 201
16 Whitey Ford NYY SP 36 1.6% 17.7 16 17 24 2.0 232 68
17 Chris Short PHI SP 27 0.9% 16.2 18 17 9 7.3 67 233
18 Lew Burdette CHC/PHI RP 38 0.0% 6.3 3 10 9 1.5 195 105
19 Bob Friend PIT SP 34 0.0% 11.2 8 13 17 3.2 191 109
20 Curt Simmons STL SP 36 0.0% 13.0 9 18 15 2.3 183 117
21 Bob Buhl CHC SP 36 0.0% 13.3 13 15 11 1.9 160 140
22 Jim Bunning PHI SP 33 0.0% 17.8 19 19 12 3.8 156 144
23 Larry Jackson CHC SP 34 0.0% 17.3 14 24 14 3.6 153 147
24 Vern Law PIT SP 35 0.0% 13.2 17 12 4 2.8 148 152
25 Camilo Pascual MIN SP 31 0.0% 13.0 9 15 21 5.1 137 163
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