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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1959 1958 1957 Yrs Career Needed
1 Warren Spahn* MIL SP 38 47.0% 21.3 21 22 21 1.5 267 33
2 Early Wynn* CHW SP 39 43.1% 18.0 22 14 14 1.5 271 29
3 Robin Roberts PHI SP 32 31.7% 14.8 15 17 10 4.3 221 79
4 Don Drysdale LAD SP 22 13.0% 15.3 17 12 17 10.2 51 249
5 Johnny Antonelli SFG SP 29 10.2% 16.8 19 16 12 6.5 119 181
6 Billy Pierce CHW SP 32 5.1% 16.0 14 17 20 4.7 165 135
7 Pedro Ramos WAS SP 24 1.2% 13.2 13 14 12 9.5 56 244
8 Lew Burdette MIL SP 32 1.0% 20.0 21 20 17 4.4 126 174
9 Jim Bunning DET SP 27 0.6% 16.5 17 14 20 7.4 59 241
10 Murry Dickson KCA RP 42 0.0% 5.2 2 10 5 1.5 172 128
11 Don Newcombe CIN SP 33 0.0% 10.7 13 7 11 4.2 143 157
12 Mike Garcia CLE SP 35 0.0% 3.8 3 1 12 2.6 142 158
13 Ned Garver KCA SP 33 0.0% 10.0 10 12 6 3.9 125 175
14 Bob Rush MIL SP 33 0.0% 6.8 5 10 6 3.9 125 175
15 Carl Erskine LAD RP 32 0.0% 2.2 0 4 5 4.5 122 178
16 Whitey Ford NYY SP 30 0.0% 14.5 16 14 11 5.6 121 179
17 Gerry Staley CHW RP 38 0.0% 6.2 8 4 5 1.5 119 181
18 Curt Simmons PHI RP 30 0.0% 4.3 0 7 12 5.9 115 185
19 Jim Hearn PHI RP 38 0.0% 2.5 0 5 5 1.5 109 191
20 Bob Friend PIT SP 28 0.0% 13.7 8 22 14 6.8 103 197
21 Alex Kellner STL SP 34 0.0% 4.3 2 7 6 3.1 101 199
22 Harvey Haddix PIT SP 33 0.0% 10.3 12 8 10 3.7 95 205
23 Russ Meyer KCA RP 35 0.0% 0.8 1 0 2.6 94 206
24 Bobby Shantz NYY RP 33 0.0% 7.7 7 7 11 3.7 94 206
25 Chuck Stobbs WAS RP 29 0.0% 2.8 1 3 8 6.0 93 207
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