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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1951 1950 1949 Yrs Career Needed
1 Bob Feller CLE SP 32 68.5% 18.8 22 16 15 4.4 230 70
2 Robin Roberts PHI SP 24 25.9% 19.7 21 20 15 9.1 63 237
3 Don Newcombe BRO SP 25 20.5% 19.2 20 19 17 9.0 56 244
4 Warren Spahn* BSN SP 30 15.9% 21.5 22 21 21 5.9 108 192
5 Hal Newhouser DET SP 30 9.9% 11.0 6 15 18 5.9 191 109
6 Ned Garver SLB SP 25 7.2% 16.3 20 13 12 8.7 52 248
7 Mel Parnell BOS SP 29 6.7% 19.2 18 18 25 6.6 78 222
8 Bob Lemon CLE SP 30 4.1% 19.8 17 23 22 5.5 97 203
9 Larry Jansen NYG SP 30 4.1% 20.3 23 19 15 5.4 96 204
10 Early Wynn* CLE SP 31 0.9% 17.8 20 18 11 5.1 121 179
11 Dutch Leonard CHC RP 42 0.0% 7.8 10 5 7 1.5 187 113
12 Dizzy Trout DET SP 36 0.0% 9.3 9 13 3 2.4 160 140
13 Allie Reynolds NYY SP 34 0.0% 16.7 17 16 17 3.4 136 164
14 Harry Brecheen STL SP 36 0.0% 9.0 8 8 14 2.0 121 179
15 Eddie Lopat NYY SP 33 0.0% 19.0 21 18 15 4.2 121 179
16 Johnny Vander Meer CLE SP 36 0.0% 1.8 0 3 5 2.0 119 181
17 Joe Dobson CHW SP 34 0.0% 10.8 7 15 14 3.3 118 182
18 Hank Borowy DET RP 35 0.0% 3.7 2 2 12 2.9 108 192
19 Johnny Sain BSN/NYY SP 33 0.0% 11.8 7 20 10 3.7 106 194
20 Howie Pollet STL/PIT SP 30 0.0% 11.0 6 14 20 6.0 103 197
21 Virgil Trucks DET SP 34 0.0% 10.7 13 3 19 3.5 103 197
22 Preacher Roe BRO SP 35 0.0% 19.8 22 19 15 2.8 102 198
23 Max Lanier STL SP 35 0.0% 10.0 11 11 5 2.5 101 199
24 Murry Dickson PIT SP 34 0.0% 15.3 20 10 12 3.1 96 204
25 Jack Kramer NYG/NYY RP 33 0.0% 2.5 1 3 6 3.9 95 205
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