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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1925 1924 1923 Yrs Career Needed
1 Walter Johnson* WAS SP 37 100.0% 20.5 20 23 17 1.5 397 0
2 Pete Alexander* CHC SP 38 100.0% 15.2 15 12 22 1.5 315 0
3 Pete Donohue CIN SP 24 32.0% 19.3 21 16 21 9.2 83 217
4 Eddie Rommel PHA SP 27 24.0% 19.5 21 18 18 7.3 107 193
5 Wilbur Cooper CHC SP 33 21.9% 15.5 12 20 17 4.0 214 86
6 Bullet Joe Bush SLB SP 32 10.7% 15.8 14 17 19 4.4 184 116
7 Lee Meadows PIT SP 30 9.4% 16.7 19 13 17 5.4 148 152
8 Waite Hoyt NYY SP 25 9.3% 14.3 11 18 17 8.5 94 206
9 Eppa Rixey CIN SP 34 8.4% 18.8 21 15 20 3.5 187 113
10 Herb Pennock NYY SP 31 5.9% 18.2 16 21 19 5.2 132 168
11 Ted Lyons CHW SP 24 5.3% 15.8 21 12 2 9.3 35 265
12 Burleigh Grimes BRO SP 31 5.1% 16.8 12 22 21 4.9 151 149
13 George Uhle CLE SP 26 4.9% 13.8 13 9 26 7.9 100 200
14 Tony Kaufmann CHC SP 24 2.8% 14.2 13 16 14 9.3 51 249
15 Chief Bender CHW RP 41 0.0% 0.0 0 1.5 212 88
16 Hooks Dauss DET SP 35 0.0% 15.5 16 12 21 2.5 210 90
17 Rube Marquard BSN RP 38 0.0% 3.2 2 1 11 1.5 201 99
18 Stan Coveleski WAS SP 35 0.0% 17.2 20 15 13 2.4 194 106
19 Babe Adams PIT SP 43 0.0% 6.2 6 3 13 1.5 192 108
20 Red Faber CHW SP 36 0.0% 11.3 12 9 14 1.9 186 114
21 Bob Shawkey NYY SP 34 0.0% 11.0 6 16 16 3.3 186 114
22 Jack Quinn BOS/PHA SP 42 0.0% 12.7 13 12 13 1.5 176 124
23 Carl Mays CIN SP 33 0.0% 9.0 3 20 5 3.8 174 126
24 Art Nehf NYG SP 32 0.0% 12.3 11 14 13 4.3 159 141
25 Rube Benton CIN SP 35 0.0% 9.2 9 7 14 3.0 150 150
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