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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1922 1921 1920 Yrs Career Needed
1 Babe Ruth* NYY LF 27 65.2% 46.2 35 59 54 7.6 197 303
2 Rogers Hornsby STL 2B 26 15.2% 31.5 42 21 9 8.3 99 401
3 Tillie Walker PHA LF 34 0.0% 29.0 37 23 17 3.1 116 384
4 Cy Williams PHI CF 34 0.0% 21.5 26 18 15 3.3 108 392
5 Home Run Baker NYY 3B 36 0.0% 6.5 7 9 2.2 96 404
6 Zack Wheat BRO LF 34 0.0% 14.2 16 14 9 3.5 90 410
7 Ty Cobb DET CF 35 0.0% 6.3 4 12 2 2.7 85 415
8 Ken Williams SLB LF 32 0.0% 29.3 39 24 10 4.8 79 421
9 Harry Heilmann DET RF 27 0.0% 18.3 21 19 9 7.3 71 429
10 Tris Speaker CLE CF 34 0.0% 8.3 11 3 8 3.5 67 433
11 Wally Pipp NYY 1B 29 0.0% 9.0 9 8 11 6.4 62 438
12 George Sisler SLB 1B 29 0.0% 11.2 8 12 19 6.4 60 440
13 Bobby Veach DET LF 34 0.0% 11.7 9 16 11 3.6 57 443
14 Elmer Smith BOS/NYY RF 29 0.0% 10.8 7 16 12 6.1 55 445
15 Jake Daubert CIN 1B 38 0.0% 9.0 12 2 4 1.5 53 447
16 High Pockets Kelly NYG 1B 26 0.0% 18.0 17 23 11 7.9 53 447
17 Irish Meusel NYG LF 29 0.0% 15.0 16 14 14 6.6 53 447
18 Bob Meusel NYY RF 25 0.0% 17.8 16 24 11 8.4 51 449
19 Casey Stengel NYG CF 31 0.0% 5.3 7 0 9 4.8 50 450
20 Harry Hooper CHW RF 34 0.0% 9.3 11 8 7 3.1 49 451
21 Max Carey PIT CF 32 0.0% 7.5 10 7 1 4.5 48 452
22 Dave Robertson NYG CF 32 0.0% 4.2 1 6 10 4.3 47 453
23 Jack Fournier STL 1B 32 0.0% 10.8 10 16 3 4.3 44 456
24 Jack Tobin SLB RF 30 0.0% 9.8 13 8 4 5.9 44 456
25 George Burns BOS 1B 29 0.0% 9.0 12 0 1 6.4 42 458
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