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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1921 1920 1919 Yrs Career Needed
1 Walter Johnson* WAS SP 33 100.0% 14.5 17 8 20 3.8 322 0
2 Pete Alexander* CHC SP 34 80.2% 19.2 15 27 16 3.4 250 50
3 Carl Mays NYY SP 29 41.8% 24.5 27 26 14 6.2 134 166
4 Wilbur Cooper PIT SP 29 39.7% 22.2 22 24 19 6.4 142 158
5 Burleigh Grimes BRO SP 27 17.0% 20.3 22 23 10 7.3 79 221
6 Art Nehf NYG SP 28 16.6% 19.8 20 21 17 6.7 102 198
7 Stan Coveleski CLE SP 31 16.3% 23.5 23 24 24 4.8 129 171
8 Bob Shawkey NYY SP 30 12.5% 19.0 18 20 20 5.7 128 172
9 Jesse Barnes NYG SP 28 7.9% 18.3 15 20 25 6.7 88 212
10 Waite Hoyt NYY SP 21 7.4% 14.3 19 6 4 10.9 29 271
11 Red Faber CHW SP 32 5.8% 22.0 25 23 11 4.3 130 170
12 Urban Shocker SLB SP 30 5.7% 22.3 27 20 13 5.5 78 222
13 Jim Bagby CLE SP 31 5.6% 20.2 14 31 17 5.0 120 180
14 Dickey Kerr CHW SP 27 4.5% 18.7 19 21 13 7.2 53 247
15 Bill Doak STL SP 30 2.7% 16.3 15 20 13 5.7 122 178
16 Sad Sam Jones BOS SP 28 1.1% 17.8 23 13 12 6.6 68 232
17 Hippo Vaughn CHC SP 33 0.0% 11.3 3 19 21 4.1 178 122
18 Rube Marquard CIN SP 34 0.0% 12.8 17 10 3 3.2 176 124
19 Slim Sallee NYG RP 36 0.0% 8.5 6 6 21 2.2 174 126
20 Babe Adams PIT SP 39 0.0% 15.5 14 17 17 1.5 162 138
21 Hooks Dauss DET SP 31 0.0% 12.8 10 13 21 4.9 148 152
22 Ray Caldwell CLE SP 33 0.0% 11.7 6 20 12 4.1 133 167
23 Lefty Tyler CHC SP 31 0.0% 5.5 3 11 2 5.1 127 173
24 Dutch Leonard DET SP 29 0.0% 11.2 11 10 14 6.5 125 175
25 Jack Quinn NYY SP 38 0.0% 12.5 8 18 15 1.5 125 175
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