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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1907 1906 1905 Yrs Career Needed
1 Cy Young* BOS SP 40 100.0% 17.8 21 13 18 1.5 457 0
2 Christy Mathewson* NYG SP 26 85.5% 24.5 24 22 31 7.9 174 126
3 Vic Willis PIT SP 31 51.2% 20.2 21 23 12 5.3 195 105
4 Addie Joss CLE SP 27 49.9% 23.8 27 21 20 7.7 117 183
5 Doc White CHW SP 28 40.2% 22.3 27 18 17 7.1 125 175
6 George Mullin DET SP 26 34.7% 20.5 20 21 21 7.8 111 189
7 Rube Waddell PHA SP 30 25.6% 19.0 19 15 27 5.6 160 140
8 Eddie Plank* PHA SP 31 24.5% 22.3 24 19 24 4.9 153 147
9 Joe McGinnity NYG SP 36 23.8% 21.5 18 27 21 2.2 235 65
10 Chief Bender PHA SP 23 22.2% 16.0 16 15 18 10.1 76 224
11 Ed Reulbach CHC SP 24 17.1% 17.8 17 19 18 9.3 54 246
12 Orval Overall CHC SP 26 16.6% 19.8 23 16 18 8.2 57 243
13 Ed Walsh CHW SP 26 14.6% 19.0 24 17 8 8.3 55 245
14 Lefty Leifield PIT SP 23 13.6% 16.8 20 18 5 9.7 43 257
15 Bill Donovan DET SP 30 11.8% 18.8 25 9 18 5.6 131 169
16 Al Orth NYY SP 34 10.3% 19.0 14 27 18 3.1 202 98
17 Jimmy Dygert PHA SP 22 10.2% 15.8 21 11 1 10.2 33 267
18 Carl Lundgren CHC SP 27 9.3% 16.8 18 17 13 7.6 85 215
19 Mordecai Brown CHC SP 30 7.1% 21.7 20 26 18 5.6 88 212
20 Bob Rhoads CLE SP 27 7.0% 17.5 15 22 16 7.4 74 226
21 Jack Chesbro NYY SP 33 6.8% 15.8 10 23 19 4.2 184 116
22 Frank Smith CHW SP 27 3.8% 17.3 23 5 19 7.4 63 237
23 Andy Coakley CIN SP 24 0.7% 13.8 17 7 18 9.2 48 252
24 Clark Griffith NYY RP 37 0.0% 2.2 0 2 9 1.5 237 63
25 Jesse Tannehill BOS SP 32 0.0% 11.0 6 13 22 4.2 194 106
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