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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns
Bill James' Favorite Toy
Rk | Player | Team | Pos | Age | Prob | EstLvl | 1907 | 1906 | 1905 | Yrs | Career | Needed |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jake Beckley | STL | 1B | 39 | 0.0% | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.5 | 86 | 414 |
2 | Buck Freeman | BOS | RF | 35 | 0.0% | 1.3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2.6 | 82 | 418 |
3 | Bill Dahlen | NYG | SS | 37 | 0.0% | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1.5 | 79 | 421 |
4 | George Davis | CHW | SS | 36 | 0.0% | 0.8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.9 | 73 | 427 |
5 | Bobby Lowe | DET | 3B | 41 | 0.0% | 0.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | 71 | 429 |
6 | Nap Lajoie | CLE | 2B | 32 | 0.0% | 1.5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4.3 | 70 | 430 |
7 | Jimmy Collins | BOS/PHA | 3B | 37 | 0.0% | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1.5 | 65 | 435 |
8 | Harry Davis | PHA | 1B | 33 | 0.0% | 9.3 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 3.6 | 64 | 436 |
9 | Charlie Hickman | WAS/CHW | 1B | 31 | 0.0% | 4.2 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5.3 | 57 | 443 |
10 | Fred Clarke | PIT | LF | 34 | 0.0% | 1.7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3.2 | 55 | 445 |
11 | Honus Wagner | PIT | SS | 33 | 0.0% | 4.7 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 4.0 | 55 | 445 |
12 | Socks Seybold | PHA | RF | 36 | 0.0% | 5.2 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 2.0 | 51 | 449 |
13 | John Anderson | WAS | 1B | 33 | 0.0% | 1.2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3.9 | 49 | 451 |
14 | Lave Cross | WAS | 3B | 41 | 0.0% | 0.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | 47 | 453 |
15 | Elmer Flick | CLE | RF | 31 | 0.0% | 2.5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5.1 | 47 | 453 |
16 | Sam Crawford | DET | CF | 27 | 0.0% | 3.7 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 7.7 | 45 | 455 |
17 | Deacon McGuire | NYY/BOS | C | 43 | 0.0% | 0.8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 45 | 455 |
18 | Cy Seymour | NYG | CF | 34 | 0.0% | 5.5 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 3.3 | 45 | 455 |
19 | Jimmy Williams | NYY | 2B | 30 | 0.0% | 3.0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 5.7 | 45 | 455 |
20 | Jimmy Sheckard | CHC | LF | 28 | 0.0% | 1.3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6.8 | 41 | 459 |
21 | Dan McGann | NYG | 1B | 35 | 0.0% | 1.8 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2.4 | 40 | 460 |
22 | Ginger Beaumont | BSN | CF | 30 | 0.0% | 3.2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5.4 | 35 | 465 |
23 | Tommy Corcoran | NYG | 2B | 38 | 0.0% | 0.7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 34 | 466 |
24 | Hobe Ferris | BOS | 2B | 32 | 0.0% | 3.7 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 4.5 | 34 | 466 |
25 | Harry Lumley | BRO | RF | 26 | 0.0% | 8.7 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 8.0 | 34 | 466 |