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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1893 1892 1891 Yrs Career Needed
1 Harry Stovey BAL/BRO CF 36 0.0% 4.5 1 4 16 2.1 122 378
2 Roger Connor NYG 1B 36 0.0% 10.7 11 12 7 2.4 110 390
3 Dan Brouthers BRO 1B 35 0.0% 3.5 2 5 5 2.9 94 406
4 Fred Pfeffer LOU 2B 33 0.0% 3.3 3 2 7 4.0 87 413
5 Cap Anson CHC 1B 41 0.0% 1.7 0 1 8 1.5 85 415
6 Sam Thompson PHI RF 33 0.0% 9.7 11 9 7 4.0 83 417
7 Mike Tiernan NYG RF 26 0.0% 11.3 14 5 16 8.1 77 423
8 Jimmy Ryan CHC CF 30 0.0% 6.3 3 10 9 5.8 76 424
9 Jerry Denny LOU SS 34 0.0% 0.8 1 0 3.4 74 426
10 King Kelly NYG C 35 0.0% 1.0 0 2 2 2.7 69 431
11 Buck Ewing CLE RF 33 0.0% 5.7 6 8 0 3.8 63 437
12 Jim O'Rourke WAS LF 42 0.0% 1.8 2 0 5 1.5 62 438
13 Oyster Burns BRO RF 28 0.0% 5.5 7 4 4 6.7 59 441
14 Charlie Bennett BSN C 38 0.0% 3.2 4 1 5 1.5 55 445
15 Henry Larkin WAS 1B 33 0.0% 6.3 4 8 10 3.9 53 447
16 Bug Holliday CIN CF 26 0.0% 8.3 5 13 9 8.2 50 450
17 Denny Lyons PIT 3B 27 0.0% 6.0 3 8 11 7.6 50 450
18 Jocko Milligan BAL/NYG C 31 0.0% 4.2 2 4 11 4.9 49 451
19 Sam Wise WAS 2B 35 0.0% 3.8 5 1 2.5 49 451
20 Pete Browning LOU LF 32 0.0% 2.2 1 3 4 4.8 46 454
21 Jack Clements PHI C 28 0.0% 12.8 17 8 4 6.6 46 454
22 Hugh Duffy BSN CF 26 0.0% 6.2 6 5 9 8.0 46 454
23 Tom Brown LOU CF 32 0.0% 4.0 5 2 5 4.3 45 455
24 Bid McPhee CIN 2B 33 0.0% 3.8 3 4 6 3.8 43 457
25 Walt Wilmot CHC LF 29 0.0% 4.0 3 2 11 6.2 42 458
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