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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1882 1881 1880 Yrs Career Needed
1 Jim McCormick CLE SP 25 86.1% 34.2 36 26 45 8.6 132 168
2 Will White CIN SP 27 82.4% 30.0 40 0 18 7.4 133 167
3 Larry Corcoran CHC SP 22 82.2% 31.0 27 31 43 10.3 101 199
4 Monte Ward PRO SP 22 80.7% 22.0 19 18 39 10.6 145 155
5 Pud Galvin* BUF SP 25 76.7% 26.7 28 28 20 8.7 117 183
6 Fred Goldsmith CHC SP 26 44.3% 25.5 28 24 21 8.3 75 225
7 Mickey Welch* TRO SP 22 36.9% 19.7 14 21 34 10.2 69 231
8 Jim Whitney BSN SP 24 34.0% 22.3 24 31 9.2 55 245
9 Tony Mullane LOU SP 23 33.2% 22.5 30 1 9.9 31 269
10 Lee Richmond WOR SP 25 30.7% 20.7 14 25 32 8.9 72 228
11 Stump Weidman DET SP 21 28.5% 18.8 25 8 0 11.2 33 267
12 Old Hoss Radbourn* PRO SP 27 26.6% 24.8 33 25 7.5 58 242
13 Bobby Mathews BSN SP 30 23.7% 14.3 19 5 5.6 191 109
14 George Derby DET SP 24 14.5% 18.2 17 29 9.0 46 254
15 Sam Weaver PHA SP 26 8.5% 19.5 26 7.8 39 261
16 Tim Keefe* TRO SP 25 2.1% 15.5 17 18 6 8.7 41 259
17 Tommy Bond WOR SP 26 0.0% 4.3 0 0 26 8.3 221 79
18 George Bradley CLE SP 29 0.0% 5.8 6 2 13 6.0 130 170
19 Harry McCormick CIN SP 26 0.0% 10.5 14 1 8.0 33 267
20 Tricky Nichols BAL SP 31 0.0% 0.8 1 0 4.8 28 272
21 Curry Foley BUF RF 26 0.0% 3.3 0 3 14 8.1 26 274
22 Jumbo McGinnis STL SP 28 0.0% 18.8 25 7.0 25 275
23 Harry Salisbury PIT SP 27 0.0% 15.0 20 7.7 24 276
24 Bobby Mitchell STL SP 26 0.0% 0.0 0 8.2 20 280
25 Fred Corey WOR SP 27 0.0% 3.8 1 6 8 7.5 16 284
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