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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1876 1875 1874 Yrs Career Needed
1 Al Spalding CHC SP 25 97.1% 50.5 47 55 52 8.5 252 48
2 Bobby Mathews NYM SP 24 84.7% 27.2 21 29 42 9.2 152 148
3 George Bradley STL SP 23 81.8% 33.8 45 33 9.6 78 222
4 Tommy Bond HAR SP 20 76.2% 25.5 31 19 22 11.9 72 228
5 Candy Cummings HAR SP 27 62.2% 24.3 16 35 28 7.4 140 160
6 Dick McBride BSN SP 29 37.8% 20.2 0 44 33 6.6 149 151
7 Jim Devlin LOU SP 27 16.4% 22.5 30 7 7.8 37 263
8 Jack Manning BSN SP 22 8.5% 14.7 18 15 4 10.5 37 263
9 George Zettlein PHA SP 31 0.0% 16.2 4 29 27 4.8 129 171
10 Cherokee Fisher CIN SP 31 0.0% 11.7 4 22 14 5.0 57 243
11 Lon Knight PHA SP 23 0.0% 7.5 10 6 10.2 16 284
12 Joe Borden BSN SP 22 0.0% 8.3 11 2 10.7 13 287
13 Foghorn Bradley BSN SP 21 0.0% 6.8 9 11.4 9 291
14 Cal McVey CHC 1B 26 0.0% 3.8 5 1 7.9 6 294
15 Tricky Nichols BSN SP 25 0.0% 1.8 1 4 8.4 5 295
16 Dory Dean CIN SP 23 0.0% 3.0 4 9.8 4 296
17 Joe Blong STL RF 22 0.0% 1.0 0 3 10.3 3 297
18 Jim Clinton LOU RF 25 0.0% 0.3 0 1 8.5 1 299
19 Johnny Ryan LOU LF 22 0.0% 0.3 0 1 0 10.4 1 299
20 Dale Williams CIN SP 20 0.0% 0.8 1 11.6 1 299
21 Ross Barnes CHC 2B 26 0.0% 0.0 0 8.3 0 300
22 Amos Booth CIN C 27 0.0% 0.0 0 7.3 0 300
23 Eddie Booth NYM RF 0.0% 0.0 0 24.0 0 300
24 Bobby Clack CIN 2B 26 0.0% 0.0 0 8.4 0 300
25 William Coon PHA C 21 0.0% 0.0 0 11.2 0 300
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