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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1875 1874 1873 Yrs Career Needed
1 Lip Pike SLB CF 30 0.0% 1.0 0 1 4 5.9 15 485
2 Jim O'Rourke BOS CF 24 0.0% 4.8 6 5 1 9.1 12 488
3 Levi Meyerle PHW 2B 26 0.0% 1.3 1 1 3 8.4 10 490
4 George Wright BOS SS 28 0.0% 2.2 2 2 3 6.9 9 491
5 Ned Cuthbert SLB LF 30 0.0% 1.0 0 2 2 6.0 8 492
6 George Hall PHA LF 26 0.0% 3.0 4 1 0 8.2 8 492
7 Cal McVey BOS 1B 25 0.0% 2.8 3 3 2 8.5 8 492
8 Joe Start NYM 1B 32 0.0% 3.0 4 2 1 4.4 8 492
9 Fred Treacey CEN/PHW LF 28 0.0% 0.2 0 0 1 6.9 7 493
10 John Clapp PHA C 23 0.0% 1.2 0 3 1 9.6 5 495
11 Count Gedney NYM LF 26 0.0% 0.5 0 1 1 8.3 5 495
12 Deacon White BOS C 27 0.0% 1.5 1 3 0 7.5 5 495
13 Tom York HAR LF 24 0.0% 0.3 0 0 2 9.0 5 495
14 Ross Barnes BOS 2B 25 0.0% 0.8 1 0 2 8.9 4 496
15 Tom Carey HAR SS 28 0.0% 0.5 0 1 1 6.8 4 496
16 John McMullin PHW CF 26 0.0% 1.7 2 2 0 8.3 4 496
17 Harry Schafer BOS 3B 28 0.0% 0.7 0 1 2 6.7 4 496
18 Ezra Sutton PHA 3B 25 0.0% 0.8 1 0 0 8.5 4 496
19 Harry Wright BOS RF 40 0.0% 1.0 0 2 2 1.5 4 496
20 George Bechtel CEN/PHA SP 26 0.0% 0.5 0 1 1 7.9 3 497
21 Bill Boyd BRA 2B 22 0.0% 0.8 1 0 1 10.5 3 497
22 Jack Burdock HAR 2B 23 0.0% 0.7 0 1 2 10.1 3 497
23 Cherokee Fisher PHW SP 30 0.0% 0.2 0 0 1 5.6 3 497
24 Jimmy Hallinan KEO/NYM SS 26 0.0% 2.3 3 8.3 3 497
25 John Hatfield NYM LF 27 0.0% 0.3 0 0 2 7.2 3 497
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